3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 5/29/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Salvador Perez To Hit a Home Run (+360)

The Kansas City Royals have plenty of power in their lineup and can put that on display tonight against the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins will have Bailey Ober on the mound tonight, a pitcher who has struggled against righty power hitters this season. So far, Ober has allowed a .426 SLG, 1.35 HR/9, 50.7% fly-ball rate, and 39.4% hard-contact rate against said right-handed hitters.

This presents an opportunity for the Royals to get the ball flying, so we'll turn to Salvador Perez, who has hit seven of his nine home runs against right-handed pitchers.

This season, Perez has a 153 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .201 ISO, 43.5% fly-ball rate, and 36.3% hard-contact rate against righty pitchers, giving us an overlapping matchup to target. Ober struggles versus righties and Perez excels at hitting them.

It's solid across the board so I'll add, Perez to Record an RBI (+130), too.

Cody Bellinger To Hit a Home Run (+420)

After a huge catch at the wall last night, it's time for Cody Bellinger to show off at the plate.

The Chicago Cubs are visiting the Milwaukee Brewers in what should be an exciting matchup in all aspects. While the headline might show that Shota Imanaga is on the mound for the Cubbies, we actually want to focus on their hitters, who are in a great spot.

They are going up against Bryse Wilson, who comes in having allowed a .507 SLG, .375 wOBA, 4.78 xFIP, 2.04 HR/9, 49.0% fly-ball rate, and 37.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.

Those are certainly numbers we can work with, so we'll stick with Bellinger, who is rocking a 107 wRC+, .317 wOBA, .213 ISO, and 58.1% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. That has led to him hitting six of his seven homers in this split, making it the spot to target.

Daulton Varsho To Hit a Home Run (+400)

Finally, we'll turn to Daulton Varsho of the Toronto Blue Jays for a long ball.

With a touch of wind blowing out to right field tonight, the ball could be flying at Guaranteed Rate Field, which is already one of the best parks for home runs.

The Chicago White Sox will have Chris Flexen on the mound, which should lead to plenty of offense for the Blue Jays, as we see them with a strong 4.78 implied run total tonight.

This season, Flexen has allowed a .559 SLG, .375 wOBA, 4.59 xFIP, 2.70 HR/9, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 39.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.

This brings me to Daulton Varsho, who carries a 114 wRC+, .271 ISO, .328 wOBA, 57.8% fly-ball rate, and 17.3% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. Seeing both the pitcher and hitter's fly ball rates over 50% is juicy when we have this type of wind.

It's a perfect spot for Varsho to add to his home run total and help the Blue Jays pile up the runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.