3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 5/22/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Anthony Rizzo To Hit a Home Run (+460)

The New York Yankees have a 4.91 implied run total against the Seattle Mariners, with plenty of power options in their lineup.

There's always home run potential at Yankee Stadium and with Bryce Miller on the mound for the Mariners, we could see a few long balls tonight.

This season, Miller has allowed a .377 SLG, 1.80 HR/9, 53.2% fly-ball rate, and 37.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. We've seen six of the eight home runs he's allowed come via lefties, so this is the split to target.

We'll look to Anthony Rizzo, who is rocking a 140 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .193 ISO, 33.9% fly-ball rate, and 18.9% HR/FB ratio against right-handed pitchers.

It's no surprise to see all seven of Rizzo's homers come against right-handed pitchers with these numbers, a trend that can certainly continue tonight.

Davis Schneider To Hit a Home Run (+390)

Next up, the Toronto Blue Jays could put some power on display tonight against the Chicago White Sox.

The White Sox will have Nick Nastrini, a pitcher with a total of 8.0 innings pitched at the MLB level this season. He also only has 29.1 innings pitched in Triple-A this season, giving us two very small sample sizes to work with.

We don't have much to work with but in both samples, he struggles with fly balls and home runs with a 56.0% fly-ball rate in the MLB and a 42.9% fly-ball rate in Triple-A.

I'll lean on the hitters prevailing tonight and turn to Davis Schneider, who comes in with a 138 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .171 ISO, 55.2% fly-ball rate, and 35.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

Schneider has the power and fly-ball rate to take any pitcher deep, especially one who has struggled to start his MLB career.

Brandon Marsh To Hit a Home Run (+560)

A great matchup against Dane Dunning puts several hitters from the Philadelphia Phillies in a spot to hit one over the wall.

When it comes to lefties on the Phillies, we immediately think of Bryce Harper (+285) and Kyle Schwarber (+215), but I have no interest in their home run odds tonight.

They are far too low for me to consider, so I'll turn to Brandon Marsh. He is super solid against righties with a 145 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .221 ISO, 33.8% fly-ball rate, 41.6% hard-contact rate, and 23.1% HR/FB ratio.

His Baseball Savant page is very encouraging with his batted ball velocities rising in recent games. Tonight, the matchup against Dunning is promising as he's allowed a .474 SLG, .338 wOBA, 2.81 HR/9, 45.9% fly-ball rate, and 54.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.

Those are some tough numbers to be sporting against this powerful lineup, while Marsh gives us the combination of power and betting odds we like to target.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.