MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 5/15/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Juan Soto To Hit a Home Run (+450)

While Pablo Lopez is a solid pitcher for the Minnesota Twins, he's not without flaws.

Lopez has most of the makings of a top-tier pitcher, but there are some clear downsides to his game. While he has a 28.4% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters, he's also allowing a .378 SLG, 1.13 HR/9, and a 42.2% fly-ball rate. High fly-ball rates are dangerous when we have a power hitter on the other side, which is what leads me to Juan Soto.

Of course, Soto is elite versus righties this season with a 185 wRC+, .430 wOBA, .237 ISO, 38.8% hard-contact rate, and 30.6% fly-ball rate. This year, seven of his nine home runs are off of righty pitchers, so this is the split to target his prop.

I'll add Soto To Record an RBI (+175), too.

Jonah Heim To Hit a Home Run (+630)

With a soft matchup, it won't be a surprise to see the Texas Rangers pile up the runs tonight.

The Rangers are at home to take on the Cleveland Guardians, who will send Carlos Carrasco to the mound. This puts several hitters in a good spot, but we'll look to Jonah Heim for a long ball.

If we turn to Baseball Savant and take a look at their rolling xwOBA leaderboards, Heim is the eighth-highest in the league over his last 50 plate appearances. He's starting to do more and more right at the plate, and the results are going to start to shine.

Last year, Heim had a .184 ISO, 42.2% fly-ball rate, and 36.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. As for Carrasco, he's off to a mediocre start this year versus lefty hitters with a .493 SLG, .395 wOBA, 5.14 xFIP, 0.98 HR/9, and 32.8% fly-ball rate.

Heim is trending up and this is a good matchup for him to break through. I'll add, Heim To Record an RBI (+160), too.

Jo Adell To Hit a Home Run (+600)

Finally, we'll turn to Jo Adell of the Los Angeles Angels for a homer tonight.

While the Angels aren't a good team, they are up against Lance Lynn, who isn't a good pitcher. They might not score a ton of runs tonight, but a homer from Adell is certainly on the table.

This year, Adell is solid versus righties with 99 wRC+, .311 wOBA, .187 ISO, 37.0% fly-ball rate, and 20.0% HR/FB ratio. He's starting to get hot at the plate with three home runs over his last seven games and can certainly keep that trend going tonight.

Lynn comes in with a .388 SLG, .317 wOBA, 4.12 xFIP, 1.02 HR/9, and 34.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. It's rather straightforward for Adell, who can put one over the wall in this matchup.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.