3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 7/1/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 7/1/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit A Home Run (+480)

Following a disappointing start to the season, which included just five home runs through May, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems to have finally found his groove.

Guerrero has been smashing the ball as of late. Across the last 30 days of play, he sports a 17.4% barrel rate (10th-best in MLB), 55.4% hard-hit rate (7th), and .290 ISO (10th). He's hit eight home runs (tied for sixth-most) in this span and is in a good spot to leverage his power tonight.

Hunter Brown will be on the mound for the opposing Houston Astros. This season, Brown has surrendered a .408 SLG and 1.50 home runs per nine innings to right-handed batters.

I should note this game is set to start at 3:07 p.m. ET and will be featured as MLB.TV's Free Game of the Day. Historically, day games are not Brown's cup of tea. Last season, Brown let up 1.24 home runs per nine innings during night games but 2.10 home runs per nine innings during day games.

We've seen more of the same this go-around. Through five afternoon starts, Brown owns an 8.14 ERA and has ceded four home runs through just 21.0 IP.

The righty-on-righty matchup will favor Guerrero and the power numbers he's shown across his last 30 days have me interested in these +480 odds.

Note: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been scratched from Monday's lineup.

Mark Vientos To Hit A Home Run (+480)

Mark Vientos has smashed at least one long ball in 25.7% of his games started this season, but these +480 odds imply just a 17.2% probability.

He boasts a 17.7% barrel rate and .289 ISO across the last 30 days of play and will meet up with a lefty tonight, so I'm ready to strike on these odds.

Vientos owns a team-leading .358 BA, .679 SLG, .321 ISO, and a 42.9% hard-hit rate versus left-handed pitchers. While this sample is good for just 59 plate appearances, Vientos has still impressed with a 46.4% hard-hit rate and .204 ISO if we account for last season, too.

Since 2023, he is walking out at just a 5.4% rate against lefties and the road New York Mets will be guaranteed some at-bats in the ninth tonight.

MacKenzie Gore is the opposing lefty in store for Vientos. Last year, Gore was marred with a 4.21 xFIP and 1.90 home runs per nine innings against righties. He's cleaned it up this season to the tune of a 3.38 xFIP and just 0.69 home runs per nine innings, however, a 7.5% HR/FB ratio via a 37.4% fly-ball rate is unsustainably low.

With intriguing odds available, I'll back Vientos to round the bases tonight.

Willy Adames To Hit A Home Run (+300)

The third and final game on today's MLB slate pits the Milwaukee Brewers against the Colorado Rockies.

A date with Austin Gomber at Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league, leaves Milwaukee with a scorching 7.05 implied run total tonight.

Willy Adames, who has hit a team-leading 13 home runs, has much shorter home run odds than normal. But given how his awesome fly-ball numbers could translate to Coors Field, he is the member of the Brew Crew that I want to target today.

Dating back to 2023, Adames owns an ultra-high 61.0% fly-ball rate (third-highest in MLB) versus left-handed pitchers. He's paired this with a mere 5.6% HR/FB ratio, but Gomber and the high altitudes could change this luck.

This season, Gomber has surrendered a .430 SLG, 39.5% fly-ball rate, and 1.26 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters. His home numbers are expectedly ugly, including a 4.83 xFIP, 1.78 HR/9, 43.6% fly-ball rate, and a 42.3% hard-hit rate. Fly-ball hitters are known to have a field day at Coors, so I'm willing to back Adames in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.