MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 5/13/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Josh Naylor To Hit a Home Run (+430)

The Cleveland Guardians have a 4.46 implied run total and are on the road to take on the Texas Rangers.

With some clear power upside, we'll look to Josh Naylor for a home run prop to start the week. He's having a strong season at the plate and comes in with a 153 wRC+, .384 wOBA, .275 ISO, 39.1% fly-ball rate, and 32.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

He's checking off basically every box we want to see when searching for a homer, and that is on the table tonight given his matchup against Michael Lorenzen.

Last season, Lorenzen struggled against left-handed hitters with a .383 SLG, 4.85 xFIP, 1.26 HR/9, 43.9% fly-ball rate, and 37.2% hard-contact rate. I love everything about this matchup, so I'll add Naylor To Record an RBI (+105), too.

Brent Rooker To Hit a Home Run (+350)

Next up, let's take a look at Brent Rooker of the Oakland Athletics.

Rooker is a Baseball Savant darling this season and has some of the best underlying metrics you will find. On top of that, he has a 204 wRC+, .456 wOBA, .342 ISO, 44.7% fly-ball rate, and 42.6% hard-contact rate versus righties.

That puts him in a great spot against Spencer Arrighetti, a young and unproven pitcher for the Houston Astros. This is his first year in the MLB, and he has only 21.1 innings pitched, giving us a rather small sample size.

In that time, he has allowed a .516 wOBA, .718 SLG, 4.72 xFIP, 3.52 HR/9, 41.4% hard-contact rate, and 34.5% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.

Of course, some of these numbers are bound to regress as the inning sample grows, but he's struggling and is worth targeting for a home run prop. I'll add Rooker To Record an RBI (+155), too.

Ryan O'Hearn To Hit a Home Run (+630)

Finally, let's turn to Ryan O'Hearn for a long ball tonight.

O'Hearn has some legit power but only when he's facing a right-handed pitcher, as he is tonight in Jose Berrios of the Toronto Blue Jays.

He's rocking a 172 wRC+, .412 wOBA, .241 ISO, 41.9% fly-ball rate, and 33.8% hard-contact rate versus righties this season, all numbers we love to see.

There is a bit of wind blowing out in Baltimore tonight, giving us some favorable hitting conditions for home runs.

Berrios is struggling versus lefties with a .338 SLG, 1.29 HR/9, 43.5% fly-ball rate, and 43.5% hard-contact rate this season. It's all good to see for a homer, so I'll add O'Hearn To Record an RBI (+160), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.