3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 7/5/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Joc Pederson To Hit a Home Run (+430)

Joc Pederson has been generating a 15.8% barrel rate, 52.6% fly-ball rate, and .273 ISO across the last two weeks of play.

Heading into a matchup against Randy Vasquez, a pitcher who has been downright terrible versus lefties, Pederson is a top target in today's home run market.

In his two-year career in the majors, Vasquez has pitched a total of 36 1/3 frames against left-handed hitters. In this split, he is surrendering a .344 BA, .567 SLG, .223 ISO, and an eye-popping 2.23 home runs per nine innings.

Vasquez also owns a 5.88 xFIP in this split and has allowed five long balls through just 89 at-bats against lefties this season.

Pederson has been hitting the ball hard as of late and comes in with great numbers against righties, too. He sports a .227 ISO, .521 SLG, and 156 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers, hitting 11 of his 12 home runs against this handedness.

He has smashed at least one home run in 19.4% of his games started this season, so these +430 odds -- which imply an 18.8% probability -- show value, especially given the matchup on deck.

Anthony Santander To Hit a Home Run (+340)

We aren't short on intriguing home run plays for the Baltimore Orioles today. The O's have hammered a league-leading 142 home runs and will now get a go at Hogan Harris of the Oakland Athletics.

This season, Harris has been rocked with a 5.52 xERA and a 4.70 xFIP. In his career, he's allowed righties to produce a 47.2% fly-ball rate and 1.51 home runs per nine innings.

Which Baltimore slugger can exploit Oakland's lefty? Our best bet might be Anthony Santander.

Santander has seen 22 balls go over the fence this season, good for the fifth-most in MLB. The switch-hitter touts better splits versus lefties, including a .269 ISO, 149 wRC+, and a 45.6% fly-ball rate.

He's mauled the ball with a scorching 15.9% barrel rate, 47.7% hard-hit rate, 56.8% fly-ball rate, and a team-leading .340 ISO across the last 30 days. That fly-ball rate is the second-highest in MLB while a .340 ISO is the fifth-highest in that span behind only Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, and Christian Walker (minimum 100 PAs).

Santander has hit at least one home run in 25.6% of games this season, but these +340 odds suggest only a 22.7% probability despite an awesome matchup.

Freddie Freeman To Hit A Home Run (+450)

Aaron Civale was recently acquired by the Milwaukee Brewers and will make his first start for the team this evening.

Before joining the Brew Crew, Civale was off to an underwhelming start for the Tampa Bay Rays.

He's been getting rocked by lefties, ceding a .214 ISO, .500 SLG, 44.5% fly-ball rate, and 1.98 home runs per nine innings (sixth-most in MLB; minimum 30 IP) through 36 1/3 IP.

An away game at Dodger Stadium, the second-friendliest homer park in baseball, doesn't do Civale's case any favors. The Los Angeles Dodgers have some mean lefties in their lineup, and while Ohtani (+250) is the obvious play, it could be worthwhile to target a longer shot in Freddie Freeman.

Freeman got off to a slow start this year, going into May with just a pair of home runs under his belt. But in the last 30 days, he's been good for a 10.8% barrel rate, 45.8% hard-hit rate, and a .271 ISO.

It's easy to vouch for Freeman against a righty, as he owns a league-leading .332 BA and 184 wRC+ (third-best in MLB) versus this handedness. The power has been there, too. He comes in with a .250 ISO and 38.6% fly-ball rate in this split.

I like Freeman to go long, but considering the all-around great matchup, I'd also consider Freeman To Record An RBI (+130).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.