3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 6/14/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Oneil Cruz To Hit a Home Run (+350)

A game at Coors Field is always a spot to look for some home runs.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are visiting the Colorado Rockies this weekend and it's kicks off with a very favorable matchup for Oneil Cruz.

He is crushing righties this season with a 139 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .214 ISO, 36.0% fly-ball rate, 39.5% hard-contact rate, and 17.1% HR/FB ratio. It's no surprise to see that he's hit seven of his nine homers against righties.

Cruz will face off against Ryan Feltner, who struggles against lefties to the tune of a .520 SLG, .375 wOBA, 1.51 HR/9, 4.06 xFIP, 38.7% fly-ball rate, and 41.3% hard-contact rate. Again, not a surprise to see that Feltner has allowed six of his nine home runs to lefties.

Willy Adames To Hit a Home Run (+440)

With a hot bat at the plate, Willy Adames will look to put one over the wall tonight.

The Milwaukee Brewers have some good hitters in their lineup and Adames is the best of the bunch right now with two homers over his last three games.

He will look to keep that going tonight against Hunter Greene, who has allowed a .422 SLG, .331 wOBA, 1.05 HR/9, 4.52 xFIP, and 43.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.

This puts Adames in a good spot, since he's a reverse splits hitter, being better against righty pitchers as a righty hitter.

Adames comes in with a 126 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .198 ISO, 46.7% fly-ball rate, and 12.7% HR/FB ratio against righties.

This is why we've seen him hit 9 of his 11 home runs against righty pitchers, making it the split to attack.

I'll add, Adames To Record an RBI (+140), too.

Manny Machado To Hit a Home Run (+400)

Lastly, let's look at the San Diego Padres visiting the New York Mets.

The Mets will have Sean Manaea on the bump tonight, a pitcher who struggles with righties and is also due for some negative regression.

This season, Manaea allows a 46.2% fly-ball rate, 32.9% hard-contact rate, and only 0.71 HR/9.

If we look back to last season, he allowed a 39.9% fly-ball rate, 34.1% hard-contact rate, and 1.42 HR/9.

That means he's allowing more fly-balls this year, but fewer are going for home runs. That simply isn't sustainable, and we should target him for homers.

We turn to, Manny Machado, who comes in with a 103 wRC+, .305 wOBA, .176 ISO, and 45.1% fly-ball rate versus lefties this season.

Over just his last five games, Machado has five balls hit with exit velocities at 102 mph or higher, but no home runs.

I like what I'm seeing, so I'll add, Machado To Record an RBI (+135), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.