MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 5/31/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Alec Bohm To Hit a Home Run (+600)

The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the best offenses in the league and will look to continue that tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals.

With power up and down their lineup, the Phillies can pile up the runs quickly, making them a clear target for home run props. Tonight, they'll be up against Miles Mikolas, a pitcher we love to target for home runs.

This season, Mikolas has allowed a .467 SLG, .340 wOBA, 1.52 HR/9, 34.7% fly-ball rate, and 14.7% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed hitters. He's not a pitcher we need to be worried and it brings me to Alec Bohm for a homer.

Bohm is having a great season at the plate and comes in with a 146 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .186 ISO, and 33.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Bohm has a solid spot in the lineup and will be in a position to see good pitches.

It's a solid matchup across the board so I'll add Bohm To Record an RBI (+140), too.

David Fry To Hit a Home Run (+560)

With an awesome matchup, David Fry has a chance to continue his hot season at the plate.

Fry has been an awesome story for the Cleveland Guardians this year and he's been crushing the ball on a regular basis. The Guardians come in with a 4.62 implied run total tonight, as they are set to take on Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals.

This year, Corbin is allowing a .559 SLG, .396 wOBA, 1.48 HR/9, 4.43 xFIP, 32.3% fly-ball rate, and 14.8% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed hitters.

We turn to Fry, who is crushing lefties with a 275 wRC+, .561 wOBA, .372 ISO, 40.6% fly-ball rate, 43.8% hard-contact rate, and 30.8% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers.

Those are some truly elite numbers, and the power is clear with Fry, so I'll add Fry To Record an RBI (+135), too.

Davis Schneider To Hit a Home Run (+430)

The Toronto Blue Jays have a very solid 4.69 implied run total tonight on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Bailey Falter is expected to be on the mound for the Pirates tonight, a pitcher with some interesting underlying numbers.

This season versus right-handed hitters, he allowed a .377 SLG, 1.59 HR/9, .177 BABIP, 4.92 xFIP, 48.5% fly-ball rate, and 33.3% hard-contact rate. He's not giving up a ton of normal hits overall but the balls that do get hit have a good chance to go out of the park.

This brings me to Davis Schneider, who comes in with a 131 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .282 ISO, 46.4% fly-ball rate, 35.7% hard-contact rate, and 23.1% HR/FB ratio versus southpaws.

That is some legit power and puts him in a good spot tonight, so I'll add Schneider To Record an RBI (+175), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.