MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Dinger Tuesday 6/25/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Tuesday's during the MLB season mean one thing -- Dinger Tuesday! Place a pre-live, straight "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game happening on June 25th. You’ll get Bonus Bets for each home run BOTH TEAMS hit in the game! See the promotions page for more information.

Home Run Props

Josh Smith To Hit a Home Run (+600)

The Texas Rangers have a great matchup to put some power on display tonight.

They are on the road to take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee will send Bryse Wilson to the mound tonight, a pitcher we love to see in action.

This season, Wilson has allowed a .535 SLG, .396 wOBA, 2.25 HR/9, 5.03 xFIP, 47.1% fly-ball rate, and 41.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.

Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on tonight' slate, making this an obvious spot to target.

We turn to Josh Smith, who is trending upwards in his last 50 plate appearances, with several batted balls at over 100 mph exit velocity. For the entire season, Smith has a 142 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .175 ISO, and 36.4% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.

He's hot at the dish right now and has a super favorable matchup to continue that trend. I'll add Smith to Record an RBI (+170), too.

Matt Olson To Hit a Home Run (+360)

The reigning home run king from 2023 looks to add to his 2024 total tonight.

That of course is Matt Olson, who got off to a bit of a slow start this season but has three home runs in his last 12 games and is looking solid at the plate.

On the season, he comes in with a 101 wRC+, .313 wOBA, .163 ISO, 38.1% fly-ball rate, 36.6% hard-contact rate, and 11.8% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers.

He's on the road visiting the St. Louis Cardinals, where it's in the mid-90s with the wind blowing out, giving us ideal hitting conditions.

Olson will be up against Kyle Gibson, who has struggled big time versus lefties this season with a .455 SLG, .338 wOBA, 1.50 HR/9, 4.65 xFIP, 41.0% fly-ball rate, and 36.6% hard-contact rate allowed.

It's all good stuff for Olson tonight, so I'll add Olson to Record an RBI (+125), too.

Yordan Alvarez To Hit a Home Run (+310)

With a big 5.11 implied run total tonight, the Houston Astros should have their offense piling up the runs.

They are at home to take on Austin Gomber, who is an ideal pitcher to target for homers with his .541 SLG, .334 wOBA, 4.03 xFIP, 2.81 HR/9, 45.1% fly-ball rate, and 37.3% hard-contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters this season.

This brings me to none other than Yordan Alvarez, who has odds sitting at just +310 which is about the lowest I'll go when looking for home run props.

Alvarez is elite with a 154 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .190 ISO, 39.5% fly-ball rate, and 40.87% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

Of course, I'll add Alvarez to Record an RBI (+100), too.


Dinger Tuesday is back! Place a pre-live, straight "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game happening June 25th. You’ll get Bonus Bets for each home run BOTH TEAMS hit in the game! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.