3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Dinger Tuesday 6/18/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Bobby Witt Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+430)

The Kansas City Royals have a solid 4.22 implied run total tonight against the Oakland Athletics where they could push past that in a hurry.

The Royals have some strong hitters in their lineup, and with a favorable matchup against Hogan Harris, the ball could be leaving the park tonight.

If we look back to last season for a larger sample size from Harris, he allowed a .475 SLG, 1.58 HR/9, 5.20 xFIP, 47.4% fly-ball rate, and 32.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

That's nothing we need to worry about, so we turn to Bobby Witt Jr., who is one of the best hitters in the league.

He comes in with a 136 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .200 ISO, 47.6% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

With no exaggeration, Witt checks off every single box we are looking for in a player with power potential.

Ryan Mountcastle To Hit a Home Run (+390)

Next up, Ryan Mountcastle of the Baltimore Orioles always brings power to the plate.

With 114 home runs, the Orioles lead the MLB in homers, making them a clear team to target on a nightly basis.

Tonight, they are up against Nestor Cortes, who has allowed a .422 SLG, 1.49 HR/9, 4.10 xFIP, 51.4% fly-ball rate, and 33.0% hard-contact rate to righty hitters this season.

It's no surprise to see that all 12 of the home runs he's allowed have come via righties.

This leads me to Ryan Mountcastle, who is rocking a 130 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .197 ISO, 39.7% hard-contact rate, and 25.0% HR/FB ratio versus lefties this season.

This lineup has plenty of power so I'll add, Mountcastle To Record an RBI (+135), too.

Willy Adames To Hit a Home Run (+340)

With a very favorable matchup, the Milwaukee Brewers should be able to pile up the runs tonight. They are up against the Los Angeles Angels, who will send Griffin Canning to the mound.

This is a welcome sight for us since Canning struggles big time with fly balls.

So far this season, Canning has allowed a .346 SLG, 1.00 HR/9, 4.91 xFIP, 42.9% fly-ball rate, and 31.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

It's straightforward stuff so we look to Willy Adames for a dinger tonight with his 127 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .204 ISO, 45.9% fly-ball rate, and 13.7% HR/FB ratio versus righties.

Adames has crushed righties this season, which is why he has 10 of his 12 home runs in this split.

I'll add, Adames To Record an RBI (+100), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.