3 College Basketball Prop Bets for Wednesday 2/28/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 College Basketball Prop Bets for Wednesday 2/28/24

College basketball season is in full swing, and via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, we can get into the action by checking out prop bets for key games.

For bettors, numberFire's Matchup Heat Map helps identify favorable game environments, while KenPom and Sports-Reference offer a wide range of team-level statistics. We can also turn to Bart Torvik and RealGM for advanced player stats and splits.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and dive into our wealth of statistical data to find today's best prop bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Prop Bets

Missouri Tigers at No. 24 Florida Gators

Tyrese Samuel Over 13.5 Points (+136)

The Florida Gators look poised to mash another defense as they take on the Missouri Tigers on Wednesday. Florida carries the 15th-best offense while Missouri ranks 181st in defense, per KenPom. With the second-worst defense in the SEC, the Tigers have plenty of fatal flaws that the Gators can chomp on.

This includes a susceptible interior defense with Missouri ranking in the bottom 43% of opponent two-point percentage and in the bottom 19% with opponents converting 61.4% of their close twos. Florida has several talented interior scorers, including Tyrese Samuel, who is averaging 13.0 points per game (PPG).

Samuel has reached 14 points in three of his last four games. The 6-foot-10 forward has attempted only 22 three-pointers on the season, and he ranks second on the team with 62.8% of his shots taking place at the rim. Samuel going over 11.5 points at -130 feels like a very promising pick, but I'm taking it a step further with the senior forward reaching at least 14 points.

As previously mentioned, Samuel has reached 14 points in three of the last four contests. He has a favorable matchup against a weak paint defense, and Missouri's starting frontcourt of Noah Carter (0.34) and Jordan Butler (0.65) have weak Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR), per EvanMiya. The Gators' big man could be one of the best points props for tonight's slate.

Louisville Cardinals at No. 10 Duke Blue Devils

Mark Mitchell To Score 15+ Points (-108)

Duke has been a hot topic in college basketball since their 83-79 loss against Wake Forest on February 24th. Demon Deacons fans rushed the court following a win, which led to the Blue Devils' star center Kyle Filipowski being caught in the chaos which led to an injury.

Filipowski is expected to play tonight despite the days of speculation surrounding his injury. Coach Jon Scheyer has said Filipowski has not "been himself." Duke could need someone in the frontcourt to step up following Fililpowski's injury as he leads the team with 16.9 PPG.

Second-year forward Mark Mitchell (12.7 PPG) could be the answer. Targeting a points prop seems like the wise choice as Louisville ranks 229th in adjusted defensive efficiency -- the worst mark in the ACC. The Cardinals are in the bottom 33% in two-point makes allowed per game and in opponent two-point percentage. Additionally, opponents shoot 66.6% on close twos against Louisville (bottom 1%).

With that said, finding a player who excels at attacking the rim looks like a sound prop. Mitchell also checks this box as 66.1% of his shots around around the rim -- the top mark in the starting lineup. Mitchell has also reached 15 points in three of the last five games. With Filipowski's health up in the air, I'm backing Duke's starting power forward.

No. 11 Auburn Tigers at No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers

Zakai Zeigler Over 5.5 Assists (-120)

Wednesday features a must-see showdown between Auburn and Tennessee. The Tigers rank fifth in KenPom while the Volunteers are sixth. Both squads also boast elite defenses as Tennessee has the second-best adjusted defensive efficiency and Auburn is fifth in the category.

Even with the Volunteers ranking only 20th in offensive efficiency, they tout exceptional assist numbers. This includes the 12th-most assists per game and 12th-best assist-to-field goals made ratio (both in the 97th percentile). Zakai Zeigler is the leading assist man with 5.8 assists per game (APG).

Before diving into Ziegler's stats, let's look at why Tennessee can score tonight. Of course, teams need to make buckets to record assists. The Volunteers shoot a healthy number of threes with 40.3% of their shots taking place from beyond the arc (71st percentile). Auburn's perimeter defense isn't invincible as they rank outside the top 90 in three-point shots allowed per game.

The Tigers are in the bottom 34% of two-point shots allowed each contest, which gives Tennessee another potential path to success as they are in the 74th percentile of two-point percentage.

Now, let's get to Ziegler. He comes off an absurd 14-assist outing and has averaged 8.0 APG over his last 7 games. Ziegler also leads the SEC with a 33.0% assists percentage. With the Volunteers holding some advantages against Auburn's defense, Ziegler's assist total is worth targeting. Even his alternate lines -- such as 8+ assists at +265 -- are very intriguing. I'm not quite bold enough to target eight assists, but I am firmly taking Ziegler to go over 5.5 assists.

If you’re betting on college basketball action happening February 28th, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook’s Boost Builder. See the promotions page for more information.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.