3 Best Bets for the Subway Series, Including a FanDuel Promo 7/24/24

The 2024 Subway Series continues tonight, pitting the New York Mets against the New York Yankees.

After taking both previous games back in Queens, the Mets won again in the Bronx, locking up a victory in the season series. Even with Mets holding a 3-0 lead in the season series, the Yankees are -164 moneyline favorites tonight.

With that, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a special Subway Series promotion for Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York customers!

Let's break down the promotion before diving into the Mets-Yankees odds to make a few Subway Series best bets.

Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

FanDuel Subway Series Promo

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a special Subway Series promotion for ALL customers in Connecticut, New York, or New Jersey.

Get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ Leg Same Game Parlay Wager on the July 24th Mets at Yankees MLB Game!

How to Participate in the FanDuel Promo

Here's how to claim this promo:

1. Sign up or sign into your FanDuel Sportsbook account.
2. Click the "Claim Now" button to claim your 30% Profit Boost Token.
3. Place a 3+ leg Same Game Parlay wager for the Mets vs. Yankees game taking place on July 24th, 2024.

Offer only valid for customers physically present in Connecticut, New York, or New Jersey.

Your wager must have final pre-boosted odds of +400 or longer and may only be used on a Same Game Parlay Wager to qualify for this promotion.

The promotion ends Tuesday, July 24th at 11:59 PM ET.

See full terms and conditions at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Betting Odds for Mets-Yankees

Here are the current odds for the upcoming Subway Series game on July 24th:

Best Bets for Mets-Yankees

Under 8.5 (-115)

When these sides faced off back in Queens, they combined for 16 and 14 runs.

But then, in last night's battle in the Bronx, they combined for just five runs -- a drought we can expect to continue tonight.

That's primarily thanks to the pitching matchup.

For the Mets, lefty Sean Manaea is looking to bounce back from a lackluster previous outing. Although he let up five runs in his most recent start, the southpaw had pitched to a 2.02 ERA across his previous six starts.

Manaea's ERA indicators (4.34 xERA, 4.29 xFIP, and 4.28 SIERA) aren't great, but he doesn't need to be flawless against this Yankees lineup. The Bronx Bombers often struggle against lefties, ranking 17th in wOBA (.309) and 20th in ISO (.138) versus that split.

On the opposing side, reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is finally looking like himself after a delayed start to the season. Cole's been lights out over his last two starts, allowing just two runs across 12 innings. He did a great job limiting quality contact in those starts, letting up an 18.8% hard-hit rate and just a single barrel (3.1%).

The Mets have performed well against righties, so this isn't a cakewalk matchup. But Cole's track record is too good to ignore coming off his two best starts of the season.

Assuming Cole keeps rounding into form and the Yankees' offense continues to struggle, this is an intriguing spot to take the under at -115 odds.

Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)

Considering how well Cole's pitched of late, this is also a game where you can consider the over on his strikeouts prop, which is currently set at 6.5 Ks.

Even accounting for some shaky first few outings, Cole's swinging-strike rate (11.6%) is still right in line with last year's mark (11.7%). So, while his overall strikeout rate is down a tick (from 27.0% to 26.6%), we're still looking at one of the game's best bat-missers.

He's been trending up in that regard, too. Cole's generated at least 13 whiffs in each of his last three outings, good for a 13.3% swinging-strike rate in that span.

That's resulted in him punching out seven-plus hitters in three straight starts.

Tonight's date with the Mets isn't an ideal matchup for Ks, but it isn't so bad we should fade the reigning Cy Young winner.

The Mets have the 11th-lowest strikeout rate against righties (21.1%), but they're right around league average in overall swinging-strike rate (10.8%) and called + swinging-strike rate (27.4%).

That makes them more of a neutral strikeout matchup and gives Cole a good chance to stay hot and go over 6.5 strikeouts.

Aaron Judge to Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)

Aaron Judge may have gone hitless against the Mets' lefty starter yesterday, but he hardly had an unproductive day at the plate. The current American League MVP odds leader (-370) finished 0 for 1 with a staggering four walks.

Twelve of the 14 pitches Jose Quintana threw Judge were balls, so we can excuse Judge for not recording multiple bags even with the strong matchup. But with another lefty in store tonight, Judge is again looking like a strong play for two-plus total bases.

Judge's numbers are eye-popping regardless of the split, but he enters a whole new stratosphere when taking on southpaws. Among qualified hitters, Judge ranks second in wRC+ (241), wOBA (.511), and ISO (.419) versus southpaws. He's also tied for the most home runs (nine) and has the highest rate of hard contact (51.1%).

That profile sets him up well against any opposing southpaw, but he's had personal success against tonight's starter, Sean Manaea. In 13 career at-bats versus Manaea, Judge has six hits, including two home runs.

Manaea has fared better against everyone else this season, but he's still not someone Judge is going to fear. Entering Wednesday's start, Manaea was allowing a 41.1% hard-hit rate and 42.1% fly-ball rate while generating his lowest swinging-strike rate (10.7%) in four seasons.

Taking that into account, Judge is in a nice position to record two-plus total bases tonight.

As of Wednesday afternoon, a Same Game Parlay featuring these three Mets-Yankees best bets would net +577 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. That would qualify for FanDuel's Subway Series Profit Boost.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game on July 24th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.