2024 NHL Winter Classic Preview and Best Bet: Can the Kraken Down the Reigning Champions?

The NHL Winter Classic has become second to only perhaps the Rose Bowl as far as a New Year's Day sports tradition is concerned, and the 2024 edition will have a little west coast flavor.

The Seattle Kraken will host the Vegas Golden Knights from T-Mobile Park -- home of the Seattle Mariners -- in Seattle on Monday. The 22-10-5 Golden Knights enter as appropriate favorites, for the 14-14-9 Kraken have struggled to get much going after last year's surprising postseason run.

Seasonal weather in the low 40s is expected for this one outside in the PNW -- thankfully with minimal wind or precipitation in the forecast. Once again, the Winter Classic's special twist is playing this game outside, so always wager responsibly with such different conditions for all the players.

The game will take place 3:00 p.m. EST on January 1st, airing on TNT and TruTv.

NHL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

2024 Winter Classic Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline for Golden Knights-Kraken

• Total:
  • Over 5.5 (-128)
  • Under 5.5 (+104)
• Puckline:
  • Golden Knights -1.5 (+162)
  • Kraken +1.5 (-196)
• Moneyline:
  • Golden Knights (-150)
  • Kraken (+125)

Golden Knights-Kraken Matchup Analysis

It's fitting these two teams will meet to start the new year because we could -- and should -- expect them to move closer to each other as this NHL season progresses.

Vegas' 54.7% goals-for rate (GF%) is fifth-best in hockey, but they've been fortunate to post that. Their expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) is just 52.0% is just eighth-best. There's no doubt that the Knights are a playoff-bound contender, but they've been extremely fortunate to have gotten the sublime goaltending they have.

Both Adin Hill (12.92 goals saved above expectation) and Logan Thompson (3.35 GSAx) have given them a lift in the crease, but without really any sort of pedigree entering this season, will they continue to elevate Vegas in the second half?

On the flip side are the Seattle Kraken. Seattle's GF% (47.1%) would place them as the eighth-worst team in hockey, but their 49.8 xGF% is actually much closer to the league average. Their season has also been decided by goaltending.

Philipp Grubauer led their playoff push earlier in 2023 but struggled early to -4.49 GSAx. Instead, sophomore Joey Daccord has slowly started to right the ship behind a .915 save rate and 5.77 GSAx, which ranks 20th among 80 qualifying goaltenders. Now with the starting job, Daccord and the Kraken picked up points in 9 of their 13 December contests.

With solid goaltending and a closer xGF% than the surface results, it's not surprising this game has a low total and tight forecast.

2024 Winter Classic Best Bet

Kraken ML (+125)

If the records were somehow hidden, the Kraken are the better of these two clubs right this second.

Since December 1st, Joey Daccord sits second across the entire NHL in GSAx (8.17), and Seattle's 53.5 GF% is ninth-best in the NHL. In that same period, Logan Thompson has started to regress, amassing -3.91 GSAx. As a result, Vegas has just the 13th-best GF% (51.6%).

In some ways, Vegas' odd schedule could work against them here, too. Off time is generally a positive, but five consecutive days off could lead to a bit of early rust compared to the Kraken, who won 2-1 on Friday.

Plus, this will be Seattle's largest crowd of the season with a projected sellout of nearly 47,000 people. The normal home-ice advantage in the Emerald City likely takes a step up a notch.

All things considered, taking the plus chicken behind the Serps feels like the right call. numberFire's model expects Seattle to win 45.2% of the time versus these 44.4% implied odds.

Looking for the latest NHL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NHL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.