NFL

2024 NFL Draft Betting: Who Will Be the Fifth Overall Pick?

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath
2024 NFL Draft Betting: Who Will Be the Fifth Overall Pick?

The 2024 NFL Draft is just around the corner -- first round kicks off on Thursday, April 25th -- and we're starting to get a sense of how the early picks of the first round may play out.

The first three teams slated to draft -- the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, and New England Patriots -- all need quarterbacks. As it just so happens, there are three quarterback prospects who currently stand out from the pack -- Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels. Fittingly, those three quarterbacks are the favorites to go with each of the first three picks of the upcoming draft, per the NFL Draft odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Barring any trades, even the fourth pick of the draft seems set in stone as of now. The Arizona Cardinals have a need at wide receiver, and Marvin Harrison Jr. seems like a locked-and-loaded WR1 -- he already has -250 odds to be the fourth overall pick and -1050 odds to be the first receiver drafted.

That means the fun really begins with the fifth overall pick, which is currently held by the Los Angeles Chargers. With new General Manager Joe Hortitz calling the shots in 2024, we can't know with certainty who will be the fifth pick in this year's draft until commissioner Roger Goodell calls out a selection.

The fifth pick is where this year's draft will really begin. So, which players have the best odds to be drafted at No. 5 overall? Let's take a look at FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Draft odds market and find out.

NFL Draft Odds

Odds to Be the Fifth Overall Pick in 2024

Fifth Overall Pick
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Malik Nabers+150
Joe Alt+440
Rome Odunze+500
J.J. McCarthy+1100
Taliese Fuaga+1600
J.C. Latham+1600
Marvin Harrison Jr.+1900
View Full Table

Malik Nabers, Wide Receiver (+150)

The Chargers' offense needed speed last year and ultimately collapsed in on itself without a reliable speed option among their pass catchers. Neither Keenan Allen (traded) nor Mike Williams (released) will be back in 2024, and 2023 first-round pick Quentin Johnston struggled to adapt to the NFL as a rookie.

Former LSU Tigers star Malik Nabers would absolutely fill a need for the Chargers. Nabers' athleticism is evident -- he was a threat to take it to the house every time he touched the ball. He finished up his final college season averaging an electric 17.6 yards per reception, catching 89 of 128 targets for 1,568 yards and 14 touchdowns.

LA may have had a player like Nabers in mind when they dealt away Allen -- the betting market seems to think so. Nabers was +500 in this market before the Allen trade and is now the favorite at +150.

With premiere wideouts earning high value contracts every time they reach free agency -- like Calvin Ridley's new $92 million deal with the Tennessee Titans -- teams are recognizing the importance of securing high-end receivers in the draft. The Chargers probably aren't going into 2024 with their wideout depth chart as it currently is, and Nabers make a lot of sense at No. 5.

Joe Alt, Offensive Tackle (+440)

The Chargers have a franchise quarterback, so why not invest in making sure he stays healthy? Justin Herbert took a beating in 2023, suffering broken ribs and fingers before the end of the season.

Alt is considered to be one of the premiere players -- not just offensive linemen -- in this year's draft class. Both the NFL's Daniel Jeremiah and The Athletic's Dane Brugler rank Alt among this year's top players. He flashed elite athleticism at the NFL Combine and was Pro Football Focus' highest-graded tackle in all of college football in 2023. He has -220 odds to be the first offensive lineman drafted.

New Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh understands the importance of dominant offensive line play. His Michigan Wolverines leveraged their advantage in the trenches on their way to a National Championship a year ago. Last year's Chargers finished in the bottom 10 in most rushing metrics, so it's fair to assume one of Harbaugh's first priorities with his new team will be getting the ground game back on the rails.

A standout lineman could be the Bolts' first step toward fixing last year's broken offense.

Rome Odunze, Wide Receiver (+500)

Rome Odunze's odds got a shot in the arm after the Allen trade, shortening from +700 to +500. We already discussed the Chargers' need for a top-tier playmaker, and Odunze fits that mold just as much as Nabers does.

Last year with Washington, Odunze ripped off 1,640 yards and 13 scores. He put up 1,145 yards and 7 touchdowns in the previous campaign. He's a proven producer, and at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, he checks a lot of boxes.

As the odds suggest, the market views Nabers as the much more likely wideout to go fifth overall, but it's not a lock that the Bolts have Nabers ahead of Odunze on their draft board. If you think the Chargers use this pick to take a receiver, Odunze is an appealing wager at +500.

J.J. McCarthy, Quarterback (+1100)

Are we sure that Harbaugh thinks Justin Herbert is the Chargers' franchise quarterback? If Harbaugh has his doubts about Herbert, the quarterback he just won a National Championship with could look like an appealing option at fifth overall.

J.J. McCarthy has his fans in NFL draft circles, even if he is not typically considered to be in the same tier as the three quarterbacks expected to go with the top three picks in April. The former Wolverine averaged a strong 9.8 adjusted yards per attempt while throwing for an impressive 167.4 quarterback rating in his final season.

Even if it's not Harbaugh and company writing McCarthy's name on their draft card, there's still a reasonable chance the consensus QB4 of the class goes with the fifth overall pick. All of the New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders need a new quarterback and pick close enough to the Chargers to make a trade up to fifth overall a real possibility.

McCarthy might not be the fifth-best player on anyone's board, but enough teams need quarterback that he could conceivably go with the fifth pick. You can check out FanDuel Sportsbook's odds to draft J.J. McCarthy market to get a sense of just how many teams might take an interest in his services on draft night.

Brock Bowers, Tight End (+2600)

We've already talked about the Chargers' need for better blocking and more receivers. So, why not consider the best tight end in the class? Former Georgia Bulldogs star Brock Bowers should be available at fifth overall and is considered to be one of the best non-quarterbacks in this year's draft.

Bowers was +1500 in this market as of Thursday, but after the Allen trade, his odds have fallen to +2600. The movement is interesting and significant, but I'm not sure it's fully warranted.

The Chargers currently have the fifth-shortest odds to draft Brock Bowers at +1000. Those odds trail only the Indianapolis Colts (+380), Cincinnati Bengals (+600) and Denver Broncos (+650) -- all of whom pick after LA.

The recent history of highly drafted tight ends hasn't been very encouraging, so Bowers could slide past fifth overall. You might even prefer to bet on his eventual landing spot than betting him to go fifth overall. But I do think he's worth having on our radar here -- even after his odds slipped to +2600.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.