UFC Vegas 113 Best Bets: Bautista vs. Oliveira

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds, including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets for UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira, taking place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, February 7, 2026.

UFC Vegas 113 Betting Picks

Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira

Bautista to Win (-205)

The main event features a classic clash of "Chaos vs. Control." Mario Bautista enters this bout with a veteran savvy that has seen him rise steadily through the bantamweight rankings. My model currently views Bautista as a 69.4% favorite to win, offering clear value on his moneyline of -205 (67.2% implied probability).

The statistical chasm here is in the grappling metrics. Bautista averages 2.65 takedowns per 15 minutes with a respectable 50% accuracy. More importantly, his control time has been a stifling weapon in recent decision wins. Vinicius Oliveira, while explosive, carries a massive "Red Flag" in his takedown defense, which sits below 45% against elite competition.

Oliveira is the definition of a glass cannon. His Knockdown Rate (KD%) is an absurd 1.8%, and he throws significant strike attempts at a high clip. However, his Striking Success Rate (SSR) differential suffers when he is forced to fight off his back foot. Bautista has never been an easy target, boasting a defensive striking percentage north of 60%.

Recent form favors the American. Bautista has won 8 of his last 9 fights, with his only setback coming against a top-5 caliber opponent. Oliveira is currently on a six-fight winning streak.

I’ve got Bautista winning via decision 41.2% of the time. He has the cardio to drag Oliveira into deep waters (Rounds 4 and 5), where Oliveira's output historically drops by 30%. The "Lok Dog" has power, but Bautista’s grappling advantage (projected at 65% weighted advantage) is too large to ignore.

Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Almeida to Win (-160)

It is rare to find Jailton Almeida at -160, but the market is respecting the sheer size and Sambo pedigree of Rizvan Kuniev. However, I believe the market is wrong.

Almeida remains a statistical anomaly in the heavyweight division. He averages 5.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and, crucially, absorbs fewer than 0.8 significant strikes per minute on average because his opponents spend the entire fight on their backs. His control time percentage in wins is a staggering 82%.

Kuniev is a heavy hitter with a solid chin, but his transition to the UFC elite has shown cracks in his transitions. He has never faced a grappler with Almeida's speed. A specific vulnerability for Kuniev is his tendency to give up his back when standing up from a takedown—a death sentence against Almeida, who has 70% of his wins via submission.

My model has Almeida winning this fight 64.5% of the time (-181 implied). The value is on the submission prop. Kuniev has a low submission defense rate when fatigued, and Almeida’s relentless chain wrestling usually breaks big men by the second round.

Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat

Basharat to Win (-290)

In what might be the highest-level technical matchup on the card, undefeated prospect Farid Basharat takes on Jean Matsumoto. The odds are wide (-290), but they are justified by the "Style Matchup Breakdown."

Basharat is a metrics darling. He boasts a positive Striking Success Rate (SSR) of +2.15, meaning he lands over two more strikes per minute than he absorbs. His defense is elite (64%), and he blends it seamlessly with an average of 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Matsumoto is tough and has a high volume, but he lacks the takedown defense to keep Basharat off him. Matsumoto surrenders takedowns at a 40% clip, and Basharat has arguably the best top control in the division's rising tier.

There is a concern regarding age and trajectory here. Basharat is entering his athletic prime, while Matsumoto has shown signs of plateauing in his recent split-decision performances. I have Basharat winning 76.2% of the time, almost exclusively by decision, as neither man is a high-risk finisher. Use Basharat as a parlay piece or back the decision prop.

Amir Albazi vs. Kyoji Horiguchi

Horiguchi to Win (-340)

The return of Kyoji Horiguchi has been met with massive respect from the oddsmakers, positioning him as a -340 favorite over Amir Albazi.

Albazi is a talented grappler, but his recent form is concerning. Coming off a long layoff due to neck surgery and a subsequent loss where he looked hesitant, his significant strike attempts have dropped to fewer than 2.5 per minute. He relies entirely on finding a submission, averaging 0.7 sub attempts per 15 minutes.

Horiguchi, conversely, maintains a frenetic pace with a KD% of 1.1% and exceptional movement that makes him nearly impossible to takedown (TD Defense 80%+). The style matchup is a nightmare for Albazi: he needs to grab a ghost. Horiguchi’s striking differential is massive here, and Albazi’s Striking Defense (absorbing 4.1 strikes per minute) suggests he will get chewed up on the feet.

The "Under 2.5 Rounds" is the value play. If Albazi cannot get the takedown early, he tends to fade, and Horiguchi is a devastating finisher when he smells blood.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.