UFC 321 DFS Picks: Aspinall vs. Gane

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane, taking place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday.

UFC 321 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Tom Aspinall ($23)

The heavyweight champ's only setback in nine fights was an in-fight ACL tear, and his +5.18 striking success rate (SSR) is the best for any current UFC champion. He's got a clear path to another quick finish against Ciryl Gane, who struggled with his 43% takedown D in two previous setbacks. Aspinall has a pair of wins by submission in UFC, and they were both frankly despite more resistance than Gane gave Jon Jones in a fight that lasted just 124 seconds due to tapout. I've got Tommy 67.9% likely to find an early stoppage in his latest title defense.

Jaqueline Amorim ($21)

With unusual finishing prowess for women's strawweight, Amorim has finished four of her first five UFC opponents while narrowly missing the fifth. The jiu-jitsu specialist has mauled three straight multi-time UFC winners on this run toward the rankings, and Mizuki Inuoe isn't even her toughest opponent by career wins (2). Inuoe has been taken down thrice in her last two fights, and one trip to the mat could be all she wrote when Amorim has recorded a whopping 13 submission attempts already. I've modeled her 56.7% likely to win by stoppage here.

Hamdy Abdelwahab ($21)

Abdelwahab represented Egypt in Greco-Roman wrestling back in the 2010 Olympics, but he's yet to get it going for a dominant win in UFC. In fact, he's gone to a decision in all three fights. I think that changes against the non-existent ground game of Chris Barnett (33% takedown D). The 5'9" underdog is still in UFC after a sweet highlight in 2021, but he's really struggled to a -2.32 SSR, and that's not going to improve at 39 years old. If Hamdy can secure top position, he'll probably score the dominant stoppage we've been waiting to see.

Ikram Aliskerov ($19)

This is shameless matchmaking by the UFC. Aliskerov's two pro wins have come via early knockouts, so how do they promote the Russian close to home? Give him Junyong Park, whose 0.15% knockdown rate (KD%) has proven to be notoriously low on power. Park is a smart, durable veteran, but he surrendered 11 takedowns in a loss to Andre Muniz just two years ago, and Aliskerov -- a training prodigy of Khabib Nurmagomedov -- can absolutely grapple, too.

Value Plays to Target

Quillan Salkilld ($14)

I'm pretty stunned to see Sallkilld anywhere close to a pick 'em after 79 significant strikes and 8 takedowns in a dismantling of Yanal Ashmouz (2-2 UFC) earlier this year. Salkilld seems to bring a chin to offset his poor 45% striking D, and he'll have a massive size advantage over Nasrat Haqparast with excellent wrestling skills (8.41 takedowns landed per 15 minutes). That's a similar formula that Dan Hooker easily cruised past Nasrat with in September 2021. I think the 25-year-old is this weekend's featured prelim for a reason.

Mateusz Rebecki ($13)

My model's strongest take of the week is putting Rebecki as 61.4% likely to win as an underdog this week, but I dig it. Mateusz just watched his fellow countryman, Mateusz Gamrot, bowl over Ludovit Klein with six takedowns, and he can wrestle (65% takedown accuracy) at a high level himself. Don't sleep on the 1.03 KD% of "Rebeasti", either. Klein's rise to this level of lightweight might not have been extremely legitimate when his last three wins have come over opponents a combined 5-11 with UFC since the start of 2021.

Alexander Volkov ($13)

One-punch-and-go power isn't Volkov's speciality, but he's got 4 (T)KOs in his last 11 fights. He has the power to capitalize on Jailton Almeida's wretched 41% striking defense if the Brazilian isn't able to get his grappling going early. Almeida's durability and decision making led to a loss in his only fight against a top-10 heavyweight heading into this one. That was facing Curtis Blaydes. Recent ground improvements from Volkov could pay massive dividends for the Russian, who I have modeled a decent 42.5% likely to win as a distant 'dog.

Virna Jandiroba ($11)

As mentioned in my UFC 321 best bets, Jandiroba's underdog status might be a gross overreaction to her clear -- but close -- decision loss to Mackenzie Dern in 2020. Unfathomably, she only attempted (and landed) just one takedown on Dern's 25% takedown D. She was just afraid of the potential submission threat. Since that fight, Jandiroba is 6-1 and averages more submission attempts per 15 minutes overall (1.8) than Dern (1.2). Mackenzie has also been dropped five times in her last four fights. My model likes a dominant win for "Carcara".

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.