UFC 321 Best Bets and Props: Aspinall vs. Gane

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane, taking place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday.

UFC 321 Betting Picks

Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue

Amorim Wins Inside the Distance (-130)

On a card headlined by two of strawweight's best jiu-jitsu players, it's fitting Jaqueline Amorim has a spot on the undercard.

The 30-year-old was seconds from five straight ground finishes to begin her UFC career, but a 4-1 record is still quite strong with an unusual finishing ability for this division. The last three wins have come over multi-time winners. Considering Saturday's 115-pound title challengers aren't even strong strikers, she's a dark horse in years to come.

Mizuki Inoue is, at best, her third-toughest opponent in UFC. Cory McKenna and Vanessa Demopoulos have four wins to Mizuki's two, and such victories have come over opponents with a poor combined 2-9 record with the promotion. She went to decisions with them, too.

Japan's Inuoe has an 85% takedown D, but that's pretty hollow when she's still be floored thrice in her last two fights. Amorim's takedown accuracy (37%) is good enough to get this into her world -- a world only Sam Hughes (6-5 UFC) has survived to this stage.

I've modeled Amorim as 56.7% likely (-131 implied) to find a finish here. Don't sell out just for the submission when Inuoe, a grappling specialist, has never been submitted, and Amorim has opted for ground-and-pound attacks before.

Ludovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki

Rebecki to Win (+114)
Rebecki by KO/TKO (+490)

As a former featherweight, Ludovit Klein gives up size in the lightweight division. That bit him badly in his last fight with Mateusz Gamrot.

Gamrot landed six takedowns and posted 8:45 in control time against Klein. It was a bit surprising when Klein had stuffed his last 14 takedown attempts faced before that one. Gamrot (5.15 takedowns per 15 minutes) was the first true wrestling specialist he's faced in this run at 155 pounds, and here comes another in the form of Mateusz Rebecki.

Rebecki hasn't fully delivered on his potential with a 4-2 UFC record, but I do think he should be 5-1. He was robbed in his last fight against Chris Duncan with a +22 striking differential and +2 takedown differential just because of wearing damage on his face. At 3.46 takedowns and 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, Poland's Rebecki is a grappling specialist with surprising KO power, per a 1.03% knockdown rate (KD%), as well.

Even if Klein is able to neutralize Rebecki's ground threat, the latter has a +0.76 striking success rate (SSR) to Klein's +0.23 with devastating low kicks. I've modeled Rebecki as 61.4% likely to win, and that meshes well with this potential "buy-low" opportunity.

I also think Rebecki's power is a little slept on here. I've got knockout (26.1%) as his most likely path to victory.

Aleksander Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov

Murzakanov by KO/TKO (+195)
Murzakanov by KO/TKO in Round 2 or 3 (+460)

"The Professional" has an 83.3% hit rate on this prop in UFC. It's not like Aleksander Rakic hasn't been rocked before, either.

Azamat Murzakanov's 2.35 KD% is massive. The aptly nicknamed Russian has delivered with a professional, "in and out" swiftness to score five (T)KOs in his six fights, failing to finish only divisional stalwart Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1 UFC). He did knock Jacoby down and nearly get the job done, though.

I've had championship futures on Murzakanov for two years now with striking accuracy (57%) and defense (61%) peripherals that are stellar in addition to the power. He just hasn't been active enough to earn a top-eight opponent until Rakic.

The Serbian underdog has lost three straight. Two were (T)KOs, and he's 0-4 against ranked light heavyweights like Murzakanov. His striking D (51%) is mediocre, which allowed Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka to stop him after Round 1 -- though the Blachowicz fight was competitive before his injury.

Murzakanov shouldn't be here for a (T)KO when he's dropped everyone he's faced. I've got him 43.3% likely (+131 implied) to finish the seminal blow, and Rakic has never been stopped in Round 1 as a pro. He's succumbed to mounting damage, which Azamat can provide.

Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida

Volkov to Win (+164)
Volkov by KO/TKO (+310)

The undisputed heavyweight strap is on the line for the first time in years Saturday. This fight between Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida determines who likely would next challenge Tom Aspinall should he cash as a substantial favorite in Abu Dhabi.

My model has maintained for a while that Volkov is the second-best heavyweight in the world. He's got a phenomenal +1.98 SSR that decimated Sergei Pavlovich at distance, but his ground game improvements -- submitting Tai Tuivasa and landing three takedowns against Ciryl Gane -- are what would give him hope in a matchup with Aspinall.

At this point, Almeida is way overvalued to crack his solid 72% takedown D, and he's no lock to find a finish when there. Almeida was knocked out in his only appearance against a current top-10 heavyweight against Curtis Blaydes last year, and "Malhadinho" is flatly just a bad striker with questionable durability. His striking D (41%) is quickly hunted by anyone who can find space as Blaydes did for the slightest moment in their clinch.

"Drago" has 4 knockouts in his last 11 fights with a 0.35 KD%. Though better known for his length and skill, he's still got enough one-punch power to punish Almeida if he can stuff the shots.

I've got Volkov as 42.5% likely to win, and that's a knockout 16.4% of the time. Almeida's last two wins over one-dimensional grapplers don't mean much for this particular matchup.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista

Bautista to Win (+440)
Bautista by Points (+700)

In a three-round fight, it's true that Umar Nurmagomedov wins this fight on the cards quite often.

However, the number has grown wildly disrespectful for a guy in Mario Bautista that's on an eight-fight winning streak against decent competition. Bautista's analytical profile is without a true flaw. He's managed a +1.68 SSR with positive striking accuracy (49%) and defense (55%) marks. He's posted 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes with plus defense (67%) and has won three UFC fights by submission.

Nurmagomedov is, obviously, a different story in the grappling department. Flatly, the cousin of Khabib won a proverbial three-rounder with Merab Dvalishvili before just running out of energy in the final three stanzas. However, we did see his takedown accuracy drop to 39% overall from that fight, which is what led to the energy issues.

This seems like your classic UFC "value loser", but I've got Nurmagomedov just 59.1% likely to win this one. That puts the value on Bautista, who overwhelmingly gets it done by decision (24.0%) versus inside the distance (16.9%).

I'd avoid a proverbial point spread in this market. If Bautista is stopping the wrestling advances to compete, he may win on volume. If he can't, he's probably losing 30-27 (or worse) on every card.

Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern

Jandiroba to Win (+126)
Jandiroba Wins Inside the Distance (+400)

A rematch for the 115-pound title is the co-main event in Abu Dhabi. Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern battled to a tight decision in December 2020. Dern (+19 striking differential) certainly should have won and did.

However, it'll be interesting to see how their evolving skillsets meet up. Frankly, Jandiroba's 6-1 record is significantly more dominant than Dern's up-and-down 5-4 stretch since that meeting. Virna dropped Amanda Ribas in that lone loss, so it could easily be 7-0. Ribas was also Dern's last win in 2024 via third-round armbar.

These are two of the best pound-for-pound jiu-jitsu players in all of UFC. 14 of Jandiroba's 22 pro wins have come via tapout, and she averages 1.8 attempts per 15 minutes. Dern (1.2) isn't far behind in attempt volume, but she has just one sub -- of Ribas -- since the start of 2022.

The adjustment for Jandiroba is obvious. She attempted (and landed) only one takedown in the first fight, falling for Dern's reputation. In reality, Jandiroba is one of the division's best wrestlers (2.37 takedowns per 15) and could dismantle Dern's 25% takedown D. Mackenzie has also been dropped five times in her last four fights.

I don't get this line at all -- anecdotally or via my model. I've got Virna 56.8% likely to win as an underdog, and it's a finish 40.9% of the time. The public is overreacting to the first result where Jandiroba carried out a suboptimal gameplan -- one she really hasn't taken since that same fight.

Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane

Aspinall by Submission (+270)
Aspinall by Submission in Rounds 2, 3, or 4 (+650)

I continue to be stunned at how much my model loves Tom Aspinall.

It thinks he's the best fighter in UFC relative to his weight class, and it's hard to disagree. The Englishman has finished eight of his nine opponents, avenging his one setback against Curtis Blaydes last July. That Blaydes loss was due to an in-fight ACL tear. No one has really had a true moment of success against him, resulting in just a ridiculous +5.18 SSR.

I'm sure Ciryl Gane has made strides in his wrestling defense for this camp, but "Bon Gamin" surrendered three takedowns to Alexander Volkov last December. His takedown D (43%) is horrible overall. Aspinall has showed no ego in taking the path of least resistance with two UFC submissions when the knockout didn't come.

The challenger's +3.64 SSR will be more than competitive at distance. He's also yet to be KO'd in UFC. Here's the problem, though. Gane's 0.33 KD% just doesn't really dissuade Aspinall from wading into grappling exchanges. The Frenchman doesn't have a first-round knockdown since 2019. Not only are Gane's usual advantages in technique, footwork, and skill lessened against Tom, but he's also at a power deficit compared to Aspinall's 3.38 KD%.

My model weights Aspinall's knockout (37.5%) and submission (30.4%) chances far more even than oddsmakers, and the latter would fall in line with Gane's wrestling struggles against Volkov, Jon Jones, and Francis Ngannou. Aspinall has already submitted Volkov, who got the best of Gane when grappling.

The champ's magical formula is his well-roundedness, which is why I don't think he'll mind having to finish Gane on the mat. I have to sprinkle it comes a bit later than usual when this fight is curiously -174 to start Round 2 despite Tommy's reputation.

Get a 30% Profit Boost Token to use on a 3+ leg parlay wager on any UFC 321 fights/events taking place on October 25th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the UFC betting odds for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.