How Many Games Will the Blue Jays Win in 2024?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
How Many Games Will the Blue Jays Win in 2024?

The Toronto Blue Jays lost in the Wild Card round in 2023 -- just as they did in 2022. It's hard to win a loaded division like the AL East, but it may be necessary for the Jays to get to the next round of the playoffs.

They lost both games in the Wild Card Round in both years. They've won at least 89 games in the last two seasons, and it will be interesting to see what they can do this year.

What is Toronto's win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Blue Jays' win total is listed at 86.5 with -115 odds on the over.

Let's dig into what we can expect from the Blue Jays this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Toronto Blue Jays Win Total Odds

Toronto Blue Jays Over/Under 86.5 Wins

  • Over: -115
  • Under: -105

Why Toronto Could Win Over 86.5 Games (-115)

Toronto still boasts one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB.

Kevin Gausman finished third in American League Cy Young voting last season while Chris Bassitt also received votes. Adding in Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi makes this rotation deep -- even if starting pitching has been deemphasized in the modern MLB.

Overall, the Blue Jays finished with the sixth-fewest runs allowed in the league last season. They ranked sixth in bullpen ERA, so that contributed to them not allowing many runs.

We should see a regression for the offense, as well. The FanGraphs projections have them scoring 4.7 runs per game this season after they scored 4.6 last season.

Their main offensive star, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., had a down year last year. Many metrics suggest that he is due for a bounce-back season, including the fact that he underperformed his expected wOBA (xwOBA) by .034 points.

In 2022, the Jays were second in team wOBA and first in hard-hit rate. That went down to 10th in wOBA and 19th in hard-hit rate. There isn't too much of a difference between those two lineups, so we can hope that this can also regress.

Toronto won 89 games last year, and without too many significant losses this offseason, they could be around that number this season.

Why Toronto Could Win Under 86.5 Games (-105)

The Jays still might not make 86.5 wins for a few reasons.

They will play in arguably the toughest division in baseball. The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays were two of the best teams in the MLB last season, and the New York Yankees look to be improved.

Toronto's offense was middle of the pack last season, and they haven't totally replaced the bats they lost to free agency. Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman were all free agents, and the team really only signed Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Turner saw an offensive decline last season, and IKF's bat has never been his strength.

George Springer is coming off by far the worst year of his career and is now 34 years old. If he and Vladdy don't bounce back, the Jays could struggle on offense.

The Fangraphs projections have Toronto at just 85 wins, so that would put them essentially two games below the total necessary to clear the mark. That would make me lean towards under despite the strength of their pitching staff.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.