Monday Night Football Preview: Do the Titans Stand a Chance Against the Dolphins?

The Tennessee Titans (4-8) will venture into Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (9-3) for one of two Monday Night Football matchups tonight.

The Dolphins are undefeated on their home turf while the Titans have yet to secure a win on the road. All signs point to that trend sticking tonight, with this matchup offering the widest spread in Week 14.

Although the Titans don't have playoff hopes -- they come into tonight with the second-worst record in the AFC -- they have managed to keep most of their games somewhat competitive. Only two of their eight losses have been decided by more than 10 points. There are 10 NFL teams with five wins or fewer, and among them, the Titans have the second-lowest average margin of loss (8.9 points).

Tennessee will look to play spoiler and may have rookie quarterback Will Levis take some aggressive downfield shots, but they'll have to go up against a Miami team that eviscerates lesser opponents.

The Dolphins are 8-0 against teams that currently have a losing record, whereas they are 1-3 against teams that currently have a winning record. While Miami's resume of wins isn't particularly impressive and may call into question their ability to compete come playoff time. But for tonight, their whopping 18.6-point average margin of victory could be indicative of the type of contest we see.

The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET and can be watched on ESPN.

NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Titans at Dolphins Week 14 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: Dolphins -13.5 (-120)
• Total: 46.5
• Moneyline:
  • Dolphins: -900
  • Titans: +610

Titans at Dolphins Week 14 Matchup Analysis

It's a good night to have a pair of MNF matchups (Green Bay Packers at New York Giants) since this 13.5-point spread means things could get out of hand quickly in South Beach.

Miami's offense is, rightfully so, the talk of the town this season. Led by Tua Tagovailoa -- who touts the league's third-best clip in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back -- the Dolphins have put up the most touchdowns (4.2), total yards (428.4), and second-most points (32.0) per game.

But their third-ranked schedule-adjusted offense is not too far ahead of their sixth-ranked defense (per numberFire). Across the last three games, Miami has allowed the third-fewest points (13.7), so their solid defense rounds out this lopsided matchup.

The Titans, meanwhile, come in with a 23rd-ranked offense and 26th-ranked defense. Their road struggles include sacrificing the fifth-highest completion percentage (71.36%), second-highest third-down conversion percentage (47.27%), and the second-most red zone scoring attempts (4.0) away from home.

The Tennessee D struggles as a visitor, whereas Miami's offense flourishes at home, averaging a mind-boggling 497.2 yards (most) and 5.2 touchdowns (most).

Tyreek Hill is having what should turn out to be a career-best season, which is saying a lot. He leads all NFL receivers in yards and touchdowns and should be primed to make a meal out of a Titans defense that is fourth-worst against the pass. Plus, the Titans will have to go up against this lethal Miami offense without Pro Bowl defense tackle Jeffery Simmons (knee).

De'Von Achane's insane rookie production has been limited due to injury, but he will play his second game back tonight. In just four full games this season, Achane has rushed for 528 yards, punching in nine total touchdowns in that span. And while Achane being back limits the usage of Raheem Mostert, we can't ignore Mostert, the player who leads the NFL in touchdowns (14). The Titans force the third-highest rush play percentage on the road (and the seventh-highest overall), so we should be on the lookout for Achane and Mostert to do anything and everything.

Tennessee's offense is, in comparison, an afterthought, but they did put up 28 points against a 14th-ranked Indianapolis Colts defense just last week. Will Levis has shown signs of being a capable QB, throwing seven touchdowns to two interceptions through six career starts. Although he's struggled with a disheartening 57.8% completion percentage, he will get to go up against a Dolphins team that allows the sixth-highest completion percentage (67.33%) to opponents.

And if we're talking completion numbers, it should be mentioned that Levis isn't shy about going deep. Even though the Titans have one of the lowest pass-play percentages in the league (fifth-lowest over their last three games), Levis is averaging five 20-plus-yard passing attempts per game (tied for third-most) -- and Mike McDaniel has taken notice.

Look for Levis to work with DeAndre Hopkins, who is averaging the fourth-most downfield targets in the league (4.6), in a likely scenario where they are playing this game from behind.

Derrick Henry is coming off a 100-plus yard, two-touchdown outing and could be primed for another big game. Notwithstanding a come-from-behind game script that would typically favor the passing game, Henry's bell-cow style could ensure more efficiency for the Titans.

Though we could be in for a blowout tonight, its chances heightened by Tennessee's struggles on the road, the Titans have stayed in games for longer than they've had business to, and Miami's surplus of offensive weapons makes them one of the most exciting teams to watch.

Titans vs. Dolphins Prop Bets

Derrick Henry Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)/Any Time Touchdown (+155)

In Weeks 9 and 10, Derrick Henry totaled 62 rushing yards off of 21 carries -- the Titans lost both of these games by 14-plus points.

In the two weeks since, Henry has netted 178 rushing yards on 39 carries and rushed for four touchdowns -- the Titans went 1-1 in these games, including an overtime loss to the Colts.

Henry is averaging 94.75 rush yards and 1.0 touchdowns across the four games that the Titans have won this season. It seems crystal clear that a big game from Henry constitutes a competitive game for Tennessee, so I would expect high usage from him tonight.

The Dolphins aren't an amazing matchup, but they do give up the 12th-most (tied) rush touchdowns per game. Add in Henry's 60.5% red zone rush share, and I'll take the plus odds on him reaching the end zone. numberFire is projecting 65.0 rush yards from Henry tonight.

DeAndre Hopkins 60+ Receiving Yards (+106)

While I'd proceed with caution when betting against Miami's top-ranked pass D, the yardage opportunities that Hopkins is seeing are too good to ignore.

Hopkins averages 64.5 receiving yards per game. Since Levis took over signal-calling duties, Hopkins touts a team-leading 26.4% target share, 16.4 average depth of target, and is seeing a towering 5.0 downfield targets per game.

I can't imagine those downfield targets would take a hit tonight given that the Titans will likely need to throw to keep pace, so I'm happy getting plus odds on the alternate market for Hopkins to get at least 60 receiving yards. numberFire anticipates 65.53 receiving yards from him tonight.

De'Von Achane Over 76.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

In four full games from Achane this season, he has cleared this prop handedly in each one, averaging 155.3 total yards.

The Titans give up 112.0 combined rushing and receiving yards per game to running backs, and although we have to save room for Mostert here, Achane was granted 17 carries in last week's blowout victory over the Washington Commanders.

While the Achane vs. Mostert question still remains, I think they should both see plenty of opportunity tonight, and Achane's explosiveness makes him quite reliable. Ten carries and a pair of receptions could be enough to get him to the over here, and I feel confident that he will see at least that many touches.

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