NZ - Tauherenikau - Race 5

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 6

11.0K

VIEW

Verdict

INCREDIBLE PATCH (1) was sent forward over 7f at Te Aroha as the favourite last start and stuck on well for third. He has enough early speed to offset his wide draw, and if he crosses without spending too much petrol, he will take a lot of pegging back. Follow your money. SLOSHED (2) is still searching for his first win after 7 starts. He placed at Waverley in his penultimate start before finishing fifth over 1m at Wanganui 11 days ago. This field is not strong, and he has top 3 claims this time. BORROWED TIME (3) is edging closer to a maiden breakthrough. His latest effort was a game fourth over 1m at Wanganui, beaten by just under 2 lengths. He can make full use of his handy gate, and he is well worth including in all top 4 combos. DONATELLO (4) will be peaking third up, and is not to be underestimated.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
1	Third race start today. At debut, raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 14 at Waverley on January 28 over 7f, slow going 0.4 len behind Tomahawk carrying 127lbs at $9.70. Last start held ground to the line 3rd of 11 at Te Aroha on February 11 over 7f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Wind Seeker with 127lbs at $2.50. Racing well. Rates highly is expected to go well. 1st Pick 1 Incredible Patch Jockey: Jonathan Riddell Trainer: Shane Crawford J: Jonathan Riddell T: Shane Crawford	153	-	-	-	36%
Analysis Third race start today. At debut, raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 14 at Waverley on January 28 over 7f, slow going 0.4 len behind Tomahawk carrying 127lbs at $9.70. Last start held ground to the line 3rd of 11 at Te Aroha on February 11 over 7f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Wind Seeker with 127lbs at $2.50. Racing well. Rates highly is expected to go well.
2	Last start 5th of 10 at Wanganui on February 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind Indian Pacific with 128lbs at $6.30. Before that 3rd of 12 at Waverley on January 28 over 1 m, slow going 0.4 len behind Zaravela carrying 126lbs at $10.60. Terrific chance to return to form. 2nd Pick 2 Sloshed Jockey: Bruno Queiroz Trainer: Kevin & Stephen Gray, Copper Belt Lodge J: Bruno Queiroz T: Kevin & Stephen Gray, Copper Belt Lodge	159	-	-	-	12%
Analysis Last start 5th of 10 at Wanganui on February 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind Indian Pacific with 128lbs at $6.30. Before that 3rd of 12 at Waverley on January 28 over 1 m, slow going 0.4 len behind Zaravela carrying 126lbs at $10.60. Terrific chance to return to form.
3	Most recently 4th of 10 at Wanganui on February 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Indian Pacific carrying 128lbs at $12. The race before that 5th of 9 at this track on February 6 over 6 ½f, on a slow track, 2.75 len behind Midnight Train carrying 128lbs at $12.90. Has ability and is expected to run well again. 3rd Pick 3 Borrowed Time Jockey: Kate Hercock Trainer: Matthew Dixon J: Kate Hercock T: Matthew Dixon	115	-	-	-	13%
Analysis Most recently 4th of 10 at Wanganui on February 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Indian Pacific carrying 128lbs at $12. The race before that 5th of 9 at this track on February 6 over 6 ½f, on a slow track, 2.75 len behind Midnight Train carrying 128lbs at $12.90. Has ability and is expected to run well again.

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