AU - Yarra Valley - Race 4

Thoroughbred

16 Runners

7.5f

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

21.4K

VIEW

Verdict

LICENTIOUS (11) is going much better than her recent form looks. Ran very well in a hot form race fresh at Sandown, which has seen five subsequent winners. Last start was poorly away and always wide in the small field, finishing sixth. Fitter again and the extra trip looks a big plus. Expected to run well. BEST TIME (1) is a four-start maiden yet to run a bad race, including three minors. Resumed from a break at Werribee over 7f and got home hard to finish third. Fitter and extra trip a plus. Worth following up. LUCKY LUCKY BOOM (13) wound up late over 5 ½f fresh then was beaten for speed over 5 ½f again in the latest but was doing his best work late. Fitter for them and now gets out to a better-looking journey. Expecting sharp improvement. CANBECOSTLY (2) is fitter again and can improve sharply.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
11	Third-up today. First-up 8th of 13 at Sandown-Lakeside 3yo F Mdn-Sw on December 10 over 6f, 5 len behind Karren carrying 128lbs at $151. Last start 6th of 8 at Burrumbeet Mdn-Sw on January 1 over 6 ¾f, 6 len behind Knock Of Beers carrying 119lbs at $3. Rates highly. Fitter again and is expected to do much better over the extra ground. 1st Pick 11 Licentious Jockey: Teo Nugent Trainer: L & T Corstens & W Larkin J: Teo Nugent T: L & T Corstens & W Larkin	137	-	-	-	34%
Analysis Third-up today. First-up 8th of 13 at Sandown-Lakeside 3yo F Mdn-Sw on December 10 over 6f, 5 len behind Karren carrying 128lbs at $151. Last start 6th of 8 at Burrumbeet Mdn-Sw on January 1 over 6 ¾f, 6 len behind Knock Of Beers carrying 119lbs at $3. Rates highly. Fitter again and is expected to do much better over the extra ground.
1	Second-up. First-up after five months 3rd of 12 at Werribee Mdn-Sw on December 15 over 7f, 3 len behind Suze Spritz carrying 131lbs at $19. Previously second-up 3rd of 8 at Kilmore Mdn-Sw on July 13 over 7 ¼f, on a wet track, 1.5 len behind Foggy Bottom carrying 131lbs at $3.10. Eye-catching run fresh and expected to go close. 2nd Pick 1 Best Time Jockey: Alana Kelly Trainer: Smiley Chan J: Alana Kelly T: Smiley Chan	110	-	-	-	39%
Analysis Second-up. First-up after five months 3rd of 12 at Werribee Mdn-Sw on December 15 over 7f, 3 len behind Suze Spritz carrying 131lbs at $19. Previously second-up 3rd of 8 at Kilmore Mdn-Sw on July 13 over 7 ¼f, on a wet track, 1.5 len behind Foggy Bottom carrying 131lbs at $3.10. Eye-catching run fresh and expected to go close.
13	Third-up today. Resuming 5th of 12 at Werribee Mdn-Sw on December 7 over 5 ½f, slow going 3.5 len behind Tennessee Song with 128lbs at $16. Last start 7th of 12 at Echuca Mdn-Sw on December 31 over 5 ½f, 4 len behind Coco De Luxe with 128lbs at $9.50. Wound up late last time and may be looking for the extra ground now. 3rd Pick 13 Lucky Lucky Boom Jockey: Jordan Childs Trainer: Danny O'brien J: Jordan Childs T: Danny O'brien	132	-	-	-	15%
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming 5th of 12 at Werribee Mdn-Sw on December 7 over 5 ½f, slow going 3.5 len behind Tennessee Song with 128lbs at $16. Last start 7th of 12 at Echuca Mdn-Sw on December 31 over 5 ½f, 4 len behind Coco De Luxe with 128lbs at $9.50. Wound up late last time and may be looking for the extra ground now.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Furlong

One furlong is an eighth of a mile.

Filly

A female horse that is four years of age or under.

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.