Hong Kong Happy Valley - Race 3

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

150.3K

VIEW

Verdict

FLOW WATER FLOW (4) went under in a photo finish on debut over this course and distance, flying home from beyond midfield. He was a $26 chance there, but showed good ability on debut and looks to have scope for improvement. Can go one better this time around. DENFIELD (6) got back to his best form last start when jumping favourite and getting back in a photo finish. Can sit closer than he did last time around and if he can run up to what he did last start, he'll take beating. LUCKY MAN (10) is back to 6f today after closing off strongly over the 7f journey most recently at Sha Tin. He's some niggle dropping in trip, though he did go close three starts back. Sure to be strong late in the race. PERFECTDAY (1) will be fitter for three trials coming into this. The booking of J-Mac is a positive sign and he can resume on a positive note.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
4	Was at long odds at debut, 2nd of 12 at this track on November 26 over 6f, nose behind Somelovefromabove with 127lbs at $26. Shows ability and expected to improve. Will be better for that experience and looks very hard to beat. 1st Pick 4 Flow Water Flow Jockey: Hugh Bowman Trainer: John Size J: Hugh Bowman T: John Size	111	-	-	-	46%
Analysis Was at long odds at debut, 2nd of 12 at this track on November 26 over 6f, nose behind Somelovefromabove with 127lbs at $26. Shows ability and expected to improve. Will be better for that experience and looks very hard to beat.
6	Recent form sound. Last start 2nd of 12 at this track on November 26 over 6f, nose behind Everstar carrying 126lbs at $4.20. Before that 4th of 11 at this track on November 2 over 6f, 3 len behind Dan Attack carrying 129lbs at $18. Shapes as a key runner. 2nd Pick 6 Denfield Jockey: Hollie Doyle Trainer: Danny Shum J: Hollie Doyle T: Danny Shum	145	-	-	-	15%
Analysis Recent form sound. Last start 2nd of 12 at this track on November 26 over 6f, nose behind Everstar carrying 126lbs at $4.20. Before that 4th of 11 at this track on November 2 over 6f, 3 len behind Dan Attack carrying 129lbs at $18. Shapes as a key runner.
10	At the latest run 2nd of 14 at Sha Tin on November 23 over 7f, 1.0 len behind Fit For Beauty carrying 123lbs at $4.60. Before that 11th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 19 over 7f, 4 len behind The Auspicious with 122lbs at $27. Winning hope. 3rd Pick 10 Lucky Man Jockey: Brenton Avdulla Trainer: David A Hayes J: Brenton Avdulla T: David A Hayes	97	-	-	-	15%
Analysis At the latest run 2nd of 14 at Sha Tin on November 23 over 7f, 1.0 len behind Fit For Beauty carrying 123lbs at $4.60. Before that 11th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 19 over 7f, 4 len behind The Auspicious with 122lbs at $27. Winning hope.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bullet

A bullet, or bullet workout, is a workout that was clocked as the best time for a certain distance on a given day.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Breeder

The owner of a horse’s dam – or mother - at the time a horse is foaled.