NZ - Ellerslie - Race 9

Thoroughbred

22 Runners

7.5f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

31.7K

VIEW

Verdict

TOP SHELF (8) dug deep second up with a gritty win here 4 weeks ago over 1m. She stays in the same class, and with Opie Bosson in the saddle to offset her nasty gate, she can repeat the dose. BIG WAVE (4) ran some big races earlier in the season without winning, and he seems to be at his best when he can find the early lead. If he can cross them from a wide gate, then he can give this field a big shake fresh up. FLANAGAN (9) won by a head at this level 3 starts back, and then was not far away in Stakes company before finishing close up in second here 4 weeks ago. Stick with her on an each-way basis. PERICLES (1) will find this a lot easier than his last couple of starts, and he did win in open company at Te Rapa before that. Each way value. HAVE A CRACK (11) has been heading the right way with his firm, and he was only beaten by a nose at Pukekohe last time out. He has won on this course in the past, and from a good gate, he can go one better.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
8	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up 6th of 9 at Pukekohe on February 25 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Volunteer with 131lbs at $4. Second-up won by a 0.4 len at this track March 7 over 1m in soft going defeating Flanagan carrying 123lbs at $8.70. Well placed and sure to be in the finish. 1st Pick 8 Top Shelf Jockey: Opie Bosson Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Opie Bosson T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	131	-	-	-	23%
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up 6th of 9 at Pukekohe on February 25 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Volunteer with 131lbs at $4. Second-up won by a 0.4 len at this track March 7 over 1m in soft going defeating Flanagan carrying 123lbs at $8.70. Well placed and sure to be in the finish.
4	Gelding returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last campaign fourth of 13 at this track January 31 over 1m, soft track, 1.5 len behind Sorghaghtani carrying 129lbs at $6.50. When resuming last campaign fourth of 10 at Arawa Park July 19 over 7f, on heavy track, 4.5 len behind Ocean Road carrying 126lbs at $8.80. This is an ideal race to kick off. Great chance. 2nd Pick 4 Big Wave Jockey: Chris Dell Trainer: Caitlin Mckee J: Chris Dell T: Caitlin Mckee	75	-	-	-	13%
Analysis Gelding returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last campaign fourth of 13 at this track January 31 over 1m, soft track, 1.5 len behind Sorghaghtani carrying 129lbs at $6.50. When resuming last campaign fourth of 10 at Arawa Park July 19 over 7f, on heavy track, 4.5 len behind Ocean Road carrying 126lbs at $8.80. This is an ideal race to kick off. Great chance.
9	Recent form sound. Last start made some head-way from midfield, 2nd of 13 at this track on March 7 over 1m, on a slow track, 0.4 len behind Top Shelf carrying 127lbs at $5.80. Before that ran on strongly from last on the turn, 4th of 13 at this track in the LR FULTON FAMILY STAKES on January 31 over 7 ½f, slow going 4 len behind Special Sakura with 117lbs at $25.70. Expected to be very competitive. 3rd Pick 9 Flanagan Jockey: Warren Kennedy Trainer: Samantha Logan J: Warren Kennedy T: Samantha Logan	96	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Recent form sound. Last start made some head-way from midfield, 2nd of 13 at this track on March 7 over 1m, on a slow track, 0.4 len behind Top Shelf carrying 127lbs at $5.80. Before that ran on strongly from last on the turn, 4th of 13 at this track in the LR FULTON FAMILY STAKES on January 31 over 7 ½f, slow going 4 len behind Special Sakura with 117lbs at $25.70. Expected to be very competitive.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

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An apprentice jockey.

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