FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 8/23/23

We have a slightly earlier start time of 6:40 pm ET for Wednesday's main slate, giving us six games to sift through. The smaller offering leaves us with a narrow core at pitcher while some familiar offenses lead the way for our top stacks.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Despite coming off one of his worst fantasy performances of the summer, we aren't getting any sort of salary discount on Kevin Gausman ($11,000), but none of this should deter us from trying our best to fit him into lineups tonight.

Gausman has the third-shortest odds in the American League Cy Young race, per FanDuel Sportsbook, which is a good reminder of the kind of campaign he's enjoyed in 2023.

Among qualified starters, the righty ranks third in both SIERA (3.17) and xFIP (3.04), and he's second behind just Spencer Strider in strikeout rate (31.7%). Add in a top-20 walk rate (6.3%), and it's easy to see why he's racked up 16 quality starts, which is just two off the league lead.

Gausman does seem prone to giving up hard contact, something that's often been an issue over his career, but it's otherwise difficult to argue with his pristine profile.

His matchup versus the Baltimore Orioles is admittedly neutral at best. Against right-handed pitching, Baltimore's active roster owns a 104 wRC+ and 22.2% strikeout rate, and Baltimore's bats found success facing Gausman earlier this month. There isn't anything especially advantageous about this spot.

While that adds some risk to rostering Gausman, we know by his numbers that he's capable of mowing down any opponent, and it's hard to say that about anyone else on this small slate.

But if someone is going to contend with Gausman's ceiling, it might be Charlie Morton ($10,000), who just racked up 10 strikeouts and 58 FanDuel points last week against the New York Yankees. The difference is that we see these types of performances far less often from the 39-year-old these days.

Prior to that outing, Morton hadn't cracked 40 FanDuel points in any of his past five starts, last doing so on July 14th. An 11.2% walk rate frequently lets him down, leading to starts that are short on both innings and punchouts.

While that doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement, he still possesses a respectable 24.7% strikeout rate, which has helped him get to seven or more strikeouts 10 times and at least nine Ks five times.

However, Morton will have his work cut out for him against the New York Mets. New York may be out of contention, but their active roster still packs a .201 ISO, 20.3% strikeout rate, and 10.2% walk rate versus right-handers. This could absolutely end quite poorly for Morton.

But if he's on top of things, the Mets' lefty-heavy lineup could actually boost his upside. Although Morton has a poor 13.4% walk rate versus lefties this season, he also boasts a 27.9% strikeout rate. It doesn't get more boom or bust than rostering Morton tonight.

Both Clayton Kershaw ($10,800) and Chris Sale ($9,300) may be household names, but Kershaw hasn't surpassed 71 pitches in his either of his last two starts, and Sale hasn't gone past 65 pitches. If you're going to take a chance at one, it's probably Kershaw against a weak Cleveland Guardians lineup, but I'm not sure either one will have the workload necessary to contend for the night's top pitching score.

Because of that, Aaron Civale ($9,700) might be the third-best choice pretty much by default.

There isn't anything remotely exciting about Civale from a DFS perspective. His 18.4% strikeout rate severely limits the likelihood of a tournament-winning fantasy score, and a sizable gap between his SIERA (4.68) and ERA (2.44) suggests he's been more lucky than good in 2023.

His 0.49 home runs allowed per nine innings looks particularly unsustainable for a guy with a 38.5% fly-ball rate. After all, his 4.7% homer-to-fly-ball rate isn't even half the 12.7% league average.

So, why is Civale under consideration? It's because he's at home against one of the league's worst offenses: the Colorado Rockies.

When facing righties on the road, the Rockies have the league's fifth-worst wRC+ (82), second-worst strikeout rate (27.0%), and third-worst ISO (.138). Without Coors Field to aid them, this is a group we absolutely want to attack, and they're unlikely to be the ones who cause Civale's numbers to regress.

Colorado's 3.14 implied team total is far and away the slate's lowest mark. Civale has been held to around 90 pitches since joining the Tampa Bay Rays, but he logged six scoreless innings for 43 FanDuel points last week, which could be around what we're looking at tonight.

While this isn't a great night for value plays at pitcher, MacKenzie Gore ($8,900) is a possibility against the New York Yankees.

Gore is projected to face an entire lineup of right-handed batters, but he's put together a solid 4.01 xFIP, 26.1% strikeout rate, and 8.8% walk rate in the split this season. Despite the Yankees' struggles, they're still formidable versus southpaws, though, as their active roster owns a 113 wRC+ in those matchups.

Although it won't be an easy path to a ceiling game, Gore has more strikeout potential than most of the others on the slate, and he got up to 44 FanDuel points in a tough spot versus the Boston Red Sox in his last start.

Hitting Breakdown

With the exception of Marcell Ozuna ($3,000), the Atlanta Braves have underwhelmed as a stack the past two nights, so perhaps the third time's the charm. The Braves have the highest implied team total again (5.72), this time against left-hander Jose Quintana.

On the surface, Quintana has looked great, logging five straight quality starts and allowing three or fewer earned runs in all six of his appearances. One of those quality starts even came against these same Braves a couple of weeks ago.

However, the veteran southpaw has questionable peripheral numbers, posting a 5.23 SIERA, 16.9% strikeout rate, and 9.5% walk rate over this stretch. He's given up just one home run despite a 40.7% fly-ball rate. His string of strong results can't last forever.

Atlanta ought to counter Quintana with seven righties, and even the two projected lefties, Matt Olson ($4,200) and Michael Harris II ($3,000) have performed well in lefty-lefty matchups this year. In addition to Harris and the red-hot Ozuna (.302 ISO since the All-Star break), Orlando Arcia ($2,700) and Kevin Pillar ($2,100) give us plenty of ways to slash salary to fit the star sluggers in, though Pillar does come with some pinch-hit risk.

The Los Angeles Dodgers return to this space, as well, and they were also surprisingly quiet at the plate yesterday outside of individual performances from Mookie Betts ($4,500) and Will Smith ($3,500). But perhaps the rest of the gang gets in on the fun against Xzavion Curry tonight.

Much like Quintana, Curry's results don't line up with his advanced metrics, with a large gap between his 3.24 ERA and 4.93 xFIP. Despite generally suppressing home runs this season, he's logged just a 16.9% strikeout rate and 29.3% ground-ball rate, so Curry is another guy who could be due for some regression in that department.

Oddly enough, the right-hander has shown reverse splits, so perhaps we'll see Betts and Smith coming through again. Among hitters on the slate, only Ronald Acuna ($4,900) is averaging more FanDuel points per game than Betts (14.8). In same-sided matchups, Curry's recorded a 5.82 xFIP, 13.6% strikeout rate, and 22.4% ground-ball rate.

Unsurprisingly, Curry is also pretty pedestrian versus lefties (4.46 xFIP; 20.9% strikeout rate), so Freddie Freeman ($4,200), Max Muncy ($3,500), and the value lefties should be just fine, too.

The Tampa Bay Rays are another team with a high implied team total (4.86) in a plum spot versus left-hander Austin Gomber. While Gomber's ERA suffers from splitting his work at Coors Field, a 5.18 SIERA and 14.5% strikeout rate wouldn't hold up well at any venue. He also induces just a 42.1% ground-ball rate, so the dingers he's allowed aren't much of a fluke, either.

Given that Randy Arozarena ($3,500) and Yandy Diaz ($3,600) are the only Rays with remotely high salaries, this is an easy offense to stack. Isaac Paredes ($3,100), Jose Siri ($3,100), Luke Raley ($2,800), and Harold Ramirez ($2,600) give us many paths to stacking Tampa Bay without breaking the bank. Ramirez generally bats third when the team faces a southpaw.

The Houston Astros are also in play, and the New York Yankees could get to MacKenzie Gore if he struggles with his control as he often does. Attacking Chris Sale isn't typically recommended, but Houston has been excellent versus lefties, and Sale's been inconsistent this year. He hasn't reached five innings in either of his starts since coming off the IL.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.