AU - Esperance - Race 3

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

14.7K

VIEW

Verdict

SECRICITY (5) settled back early from a wide draw over 6f here last start and flashed home late to grab fourth 6 days ago. The extra distance should suit, and if this race has not come too soon, then she is the one to beat. EVERLASTING SPIRIT (6) missed the placings two runs back and was a sound fourth last time over 7 ½f at Albany nearly 7 weeks ago. He has 7lbs less to carry this time, and she is capable of a big run. DANCING CHOOSE (4) kicked off this prep with a win 2 starts ago, and then ran on late for sixth over 6 ½f here 4 weeks ago. He has the figures to be competitive. Each way. MOUNTAIN ASH (1) hasn't won this campaign but has had 2 placings from 4 starts, most recently third over 7f here, just over a length from the winner. He slides down in class and should produce another solid effort. Stick with him. MIDNIGHT RUSH (3) has been racing well for travelling South Australian trainer David Page, and he is expected to be tough to beat again.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Form hard to fault. Last start 4th of 10 at this track Rtg 58+ on December 27 over 6f, 4 len behind Dothraki carrying 122lbs at $4.40. The race before that 3rd of 12 at this track Rtg 58+ on December 13 over 7f, 1.0 len behind Dadirra with 121lbs at $10. Finds a nice race this time and is likely to feature. 1st Pick 5 Secricity Jockey: Madi Derrick Trainer: Carey Martin J: Madi Derrick T: Carey Martin	145	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Form hard to fault. Last start 4th of 10 at this track Rtg 58+ on December 27 over 6f, 4 len behind Dothraki carrying 122lbs at $4.40. The race before that 3rd of 12 at this track Rtg 58+ on December 13 over 7f, 1.0 len behind Dadirra with 121lbs at $10. Finds a nice race this time and is likely to feature.
6	Comes off a 48 day let-up. Most recently 4th of 10 at Albany Rtg 58+ on November 15 over 7 ½f, 6 len behind Our Nemesis carrying 119lbs at $15. The race before that 6th of 10 at Albany Rtg 58+ on November 2 over 7 ½f, 4 len behind Our Nemesis carrying 119lbs at $9. Shapes as a key runner. 2nd Pick 6 Everlasting Spirit Jockey: Jefferson Tsang Trainer: Helen Harding J: Jefferson Tsang T: Helen Harding	78	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis Comes off a 48 day let-up. Most recently 4th of 10 at Albany Rtg 58+ on November 15 over 7 ½f, 6 len behind Our Nemesis carrying 119lbs at $15. The race before that 6th of 10 at Albany Rtg 58+ on November 2 over 7 ½f, 4 len behind Our Nemesis carrying 119lbs at $9. Shapes as a key runner.
4	Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up won by 1.5 len at this track Cl2 November 22 over 6 ½f on a soft track defeating Ruling Dame carrying 128lbs at $9.50. Last start 6th of 11 at this track Cl5 on December 5 over 6 ½f, 6 len behind Dadirra carrying 122lbs at $7. Racing well. Should be at peak fitness now and is ready for another bold showing. 3rd Pick 4 Dancing Choose Jockey: Alex Hearn Trainer: Rod Brown J: Alex Hearn T: Rod Brown	107	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up won by 1.5 len at this track Cl2 November 22 over 6 ½f on a soft track defeating Ruling Dame carrying 128lbs at $9.50. Last start 6th of 11 at this track Cl5 on December 5 over 6 ½f, 6 len behind Dadirra carrying 122lbs at $7. Racing well. Should be at peak fitness now and is ready for another bold showing.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Colt

A male horse that is four years of age or under.

Furlong

One furlong is an eighth of a mile.

Starter Race

An allowance race restricted to horses who have started for a certain claiming price recently.