Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for January 10 (Cavaliers Shut Down Tar Heels' Attack)

Devon Platana
Virginia vs North Carolina prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball regular season game.
Virginia vs North Carolina prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball regular season game. / AP Photos/Mike Kropf
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Virginia vs North Carolina Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Regular Season Game
  • No. 11 Virginia (11-3, 3-2 ACC) vs. North Carolina (11-5, 3-2 ACC)
  • Date: Tuesday, January 10, 2023
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • Venue: John Paul Jones Arena -- Charlottesville, Virginia

The Tuesday, Jan. 10 NCAA college basketball schedule features some ACC action as the No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers host the rival North Carolina Tar Heels at 9 p.m. ET.

Virginia has won more often than not lately, winning for the third time in its last four games with a 73-66 win over Syracuse on Saturday. Meanwhile, North Carolina has been victorious in six of its last seven games. The Tar Heels are coming off an 81-64 win against Notre Dame over the weekend, led by Armando Bacot's game-high 21 points.

Does Virginia have another strong performance in store for the John Paul Jones Arena crowd? Or will North Carolina find a way to upset its ACC rival on the road?

Virginia vs North Carolina Odds & Spread

Virginia enters this contest as the clear favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 9 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 132.5 points, which is lower than the majority of Tuesday's totals.

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Virginia vs North Carolina Betting Trends

  • Virginia has covered the spread four times in 14 games.
  • The Cavaliers have two wins ATS (2-7) as a 4.5-point favorite or greater this season.
  • Out of 14 Virginia's games so far this year, eight have gone over the total.
  • Against the spread, North Carolina is 5-11-0 this year.
  • The Tar Heels don't have a win ATS (0-1) as a 4.5-point underdog or more this year.
  • North Carolina has played 16 games this year, and 10 of them have gone over the total.
Virginia Rank Virginia AVG North Carolina AVG North Carolina Rank
222nd 70 Points Scored 81.4 22nd
15th 59.6 Points Allowed 74.3 313th
298th 29.7 Rebounds 37.1 18th
317th 6.9 Off. Rebounds 9.2 151st
178th 7.5 3pt Made 6.7 254th
29th 16.4 Assists 13.3 193rd
6th 9.2 Turnovers 11.1 64th

Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction & Pick

Virginia and North Carolina have been winning games with different methods. While the Cavaliers tend to shut their opponents down with a defense that only surrenders 59.6 PPG (No. 10), the Tar Heels enjoy outgunning their opponents, tallying 81.4 PPG (T-No. 12).

Having said that, I think that defense will prevail tonight. While North Carolina has solid offensive potential, the team shoots worse on the road (44.5%) than it does at home (48.1%). On the other hand, opponents are only shooting 40.4% from the field against Virginia this season (No. 42).

Furthermore, the Tar Heels own a minus-1.5 scoring margin in away games, whereas the Cavaliers are a plus-14.4 at John Paul Jones Arena. Virginia tends to win by a decent-sized margin due to its lack of turnovers (9.8 per game, No. 6). The same can't be said for UNC, averaging 12.6 turnovers on the road.

While North Carolina will press early and often, Virginia's defense is strong enough to withstand the attack, leading to another Cavaliers victory.

Final Score Prediction: Virginia: 68 | North Carolina: 62

Virginia vs North Carolina Best Bet

Whenever Virginia and North Carolina meet, offense tends to take a backseat. The last 11 matchups between these two ACC foes have seen an average of 106.3 points scored, finishing below 132.5 in all but one of those contests.

With Virginia's defense being as dominant as it is this year, I see another low-scoring affair in the cards tonight.

Bet: Under 132.5 Points (-110)


Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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