Virginia vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for February 11 (Cavaliers Stay Hot With Strong Defensive Effort)

Virginia vs Duke prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball regular season game.
Virginia vs Duke prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball regular season game. / AP Photos/Erin Edgerton

Virginia vs Duke Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Regular Season Game
  • No. 8 Virginia (18-4, 10-3 ACC) vs. Duke (17-7, 8-5 ACC)
  • Date: Saturday, February 11, 2023
  • Time: 4:00 PM ET
  • Venue: John Paul Jones Arena -- Charlottesville, Virginia
  • Coverage: ESPN

The No. 8 Virginia Cavaliers are set to host the rival Duke Blue Devils for an NCAA college basketball clash on Saturday, Feb. 11 at 4 p.m. ET.

Virginia has been on quite the run lately, improving to 8-1 in its last nine games with a 63-50 win over then-No. 22 NC State. Meanwhile, Duke hopes to get back in the win column after falling 81-59 to ranked Miami on the road earlier this week.

Can Virginia continue building momentum with another strong effort? Or will Duke pull off the road upset?

Virginia vs Duke Odds & Spread

Virginia enters this contest as the clear home favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 4 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 125.5 points with the over being favored at -115 odds.

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Virginia vs Duke Betting Trends

  • Virginia has beaten the spread nine times in 22 games.
  • The Cavaliers' ATS record as 5.5-point favorites or more is 5-9.
  • This year, 12 of Virginia's 22 games have hit the over.
  • Duke's record against the spread is 9-15-0.
  • Out of Duke's 24 games so far this year, nine have hit the over.
Virginia Rank Virginia AVG Duke AVG Duke Rank
215th 70 Points Scored 71.9 169th
10th 60.4 Points Allowed 64.1 42nd
292nd 29.7 Rebounds 36.4 12th
309th 6.8 Off. Rebounds 11.8 7th
155th 7.6 3pt Made 6.7 260th
18th 16.3 Assists 14.5 87th
4th 8.6 Turnovers 12.2 197th

Virginia vs Duke Prediction & Pick

The majority of Duke's success this season has happened at home. The Blue Devils are only 2-5 straight up in away games thus far and just lost by 22 points to Miami on the road. It doesn't help that they shoot the ball worse in road games (41.6%) than they do at home (45.8%) or that they average 12.8 turnovers per game in away situations.

In other words, it's going to be hard for Duke to beat a Virginia team that's 11-1 straight up at John Paul Jones Arena — including a 6-0 SEC record. The Cavaliers also allow the sixth-fewest points at home in the country (55.8 PPG) and I don't expect that to change with how uninspiring the Blue Devils' offense looked against the Hurricanes.

With Duke being 0-3 as the underdog while Virginia is 16-2 as the favorite this season, I predict that the Cavaliers' strong play at home will continue with another victory.

Final Score Prediction: Virginia: 74 | Duke: 67

Virginia vs Duke Best Bet

I'm looking at Virginia to cover the spread tonight as the best bet. Although Duke has won 15 of this rivalry's last 20 matchups, the Blue Devils are only 4-10 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the Cavaliers.

I don't see that trend changing, especially with Duke being 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and 1-6 ATS in its last seven road outings. On the other hand, Virginia is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games and has covered the spread in four of its last six home contests against fellow ACC schools.

Having the edge due to an elite defense, back Virginia covering as the 5.5-point favorite this evening.

Bet: Virginia -5.5 (-120)

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.