VCU vs Dayton Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 12 A-10 Championship (Expect Low-Scoring Contest in Brooklyn)

Larry Rupp
VCU vs Dayton prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA A-10 Championship.
VCU vs Dayton prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA A-10 Championship. / AP Photos/Frank Franklin II
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VCU vs Dayton Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball A-10 Tournament Championship
  • VCU (26-7, 15-3 A-10) vs. Dayton (22-11, 12-6 A-10)
  • Date: Sunday, March 12, 2023
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Barclays Center -- Brooklyn, New York
  • Coverage: CBS

A spot in the NCAA Tournament is up for grabs when the Dayton Flyers and VCU Rams meet in the A-10 Championship on Sunday. VCU has come up empty in its last three finals appearances and last won the conference title in 2015. On the other side, Dayton hasn't won the A-10 title since 2003.

Dayton took down Fordham by a score of 78-68 in the semifinals to earn its seventh win in its last nine games. Meanwhile, VCU took care of business with a 90-78 victory over Saint Louis and has now won eight consecutive games.

Which A-10 squad will clinch a bid in the Big Dance with a win today? Let's find out.

VCU vs Dayton Odds & Spread

VCU enters this contest as a slight favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 1 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 124.5 points, which ranks as the lowest among Sunday's projected totals.

VCU vs Dayton Betting Trends

  • Against the spread, VCU is 17-16-0 this season.
  • Against the spread as 2.5-point favorites or more, the Rams are 13-13.
  • VCU has played 33 games this season, and 14 of them have hit the over.
  • Against the spread, Dayton is 16-16-0 this year.
  • The Flyers have one win ATS (1-1) as a 2.5-point underdog or more this season.
  • Dayton has seen 12 of its 32 games go over the point total.
VCU Rank VCU AVG Dayton AVG Dayton Rank
186th 71.5 Points Scored 69.0 248th
25th 63.1 Points Allowed 60.8 10th
257th 30.5 Rebounds 32.9 106th
232nd 7.9 Off. Rebounds 8.0 221st
315th 6.0 3pt Made 6.7 260th
172nd 13.1 Assists 15.4 37th
291st 13.1 Turnovers 11.7 158th

VCU vs Dayton Prediction & Pick

This will be an intense rubber match after the two sides split a pair of regular-season showdowns. VCU and Dayton line up similarly on the defensive side of the court, as each one ranks among the top 55 teams in stats like defensive efficiency, points allowed per game and opponent shooting percentage.

Having an edge on the offensive end will make all the difference, and that edge goes to Dayton. The Flyers feature a menacing duo down low in DaRon Holmes II (18.1 points) and Toumani Camara (8.7 rebounds). They should guide a Dayton offense that shoots 47.2% (No. 30 in NCAA) to a victory.

Dayton has won 10 of its last 15 games in March, so back the Flyers in a close battle on Sunday.

Final Score Prediction: VCU: 60 | Dayton: 62

VCU vs Dayton Best Bet

This game is too close to call, which makes shifting gears to the point total a safe move for bettors looking to get in on the action. As mentioned above, both Dayton and VCU excel when it comes to standing tall on defense. Neither team is giving up more than 63.1 points per game on the season.

The total has hit the under in eight of the Flyers' last 10 games as well as in nine of VCU's last 13 games. The under has also cashed in five of Dayton's last six games as an underdog. Expect a lot of contested jumpers and one-and-done possessions when these A-10 teams face off on Sunday.

Bet: Under 124.5 Total Points (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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