UCF vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for 2022 Military Bowl (Dominating Defense Leads to a Blue Devils Win)

Larry Rupp
UCF vs Duke odds, prediction and betting trends for NCAA college football Military Bowl.
UCF vs Duke odds, prediction and betting trends for NCAA college football Military Bowl. / AP Photos/Chris O'Meara

UCF vs Duke Military Bowl Game Info

2022 College Football Game - Military Bowl
UCF Knights (9-4) vs. Duke Blue Devils (8-4)
Date: Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2022
Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium — Annapolis, MD
Coverage: ESPN

With the 2022-23 college football regular season in the rearview mirror, bowl games are right around the corner. The Military Bowl is set for kickoff on Wednesday, Dec. 28, and pits the UCF Knights against the Duke Blue Devils. It will be each team's first appearance in the Military Bowl.

UCF finished the regular season with an impressive 9-3 record before losing to Tulane in the AAC Championship Game. On the other side, Duke won won four of its final five games of the season to finish third in the Coastal Division of the ACC. Which team will cap off its season with a bowl win?

UCF vs Duke Odds & Spread

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: UCF: (-110) | DUKE: (-110)
Spread: UCF: -1.5 (-102) | DUKE: +1.5 (-120)
Total: 62.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

UCF enters this contest as a slight favorite on the spread. This clash also features a total of 62.5 points, which is above average when compared to the rest of the college football bowl game slate.

UCF vs Duke Prediction & Pick

Things are not trending in the right direction for the Knights. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee was in and out of the AAC Championship Game with an injury, while his backup Mikey Keene has entered the transfer portal. Plumlee will be far from 100% healthy if he suits up, so expect a ton of running plays.

That bodes well for a Duke defense that gives up only 111.5 rushing yards per game (No. 17 in FBS) and allows just 3.5 yards per carry (No. 21 in FBS). The Blue Devils also average 31.6 points per game this season (No. 33 in FBS) and could pull away early in this one if they can force the Knights to pass.

Duke players will want to give first-year head coach Mike Elko a win here, so I'll back the Blue Devils.

Final Score Prediction: UCF: 31 | Duke: 35

UCF vs Duke Betting Trends

- UCF is 7-6 against the spread (ATS) this season.
- The total has hit the under in seven of UCF's 13 games this season.
- Duke is 8-4 ATS this season.
- The total has hit the under in six of Duke's 12 games this season.

UCF vs Duke Best Bet

The Blue Devils really found their groove toward the end of the regular season. Duke went 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in its final six games and won outright as underdogs twice during that span. It was a different story for UCF, though. The Knights ended their campaign on a lackluster 0-3 ATS stretch.

It's worth mentioning that Duke has been careful with the football this season, too. The Blue Devils average only 0.8 turnovers per game (T-No. 7 in FBS) and have posted the second-best turnover margin in college football (+14). That style of play will help them build a lead and hold it in the Military Bowl.

Bet: Duke Blue Devils ML (-110)

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Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.