Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 5 (Denver Asserts Home Dominance Early)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA Playoffs Game 5.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA Playoffs Game 5. / AP Photos/David Zalubowski

The 2022-23 NBA Playoffs continue on Tuesday with Game 5 of the first-round series between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game Info

  • Date: Tuesday, April 25, 2023
  • Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Ball Arena -- Denver, CO
  • Coverage: NBA TV, BSN, and ALT

The Timberwolves were able to avoid being on the wrong end of a first-round sweep as they earned a 114-108 overtime victory in Game 4 on Sunday night. Anthony Edwards balled out with 34 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists, but now the series shifts back to Ball Arena as Denver looks to advance.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds & Spread

  • All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: MIN: (+320) | DEN: (-405)
  • Spread: MIN: +9 (-110) | DEN: -9 (-110)
  • Total: 221 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Nuggets enter this contest as clear home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 9 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 221 points, with each side available at -110 odds.

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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Betting Trends

  • Minnesota is 2-10 straight up in its last 12 away games against Denver.
  • The total has hit the under in 10 of Minnesota's last 14 games.
  • Denver is 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in its last 11 games in April.
  • The total has hit the over in eight of Denver's last 11 games against Minnesota.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction & Pick

Size proved crucial for Minnesota in Game 4 as both Karl-Anthony Towns (17 points & 11 rebounds) and Rudy Gobert (14 points & 15 rebounds) posted double-doubles. The Timberwolves won the rebounding battle 51-47 and grabbed 14 offensive rebounds, which led to second-chance points.

The only bad part about Sunday's win was the fact that Nikola Jokic found his groove. The NBA MVP candidate posted 43 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists as he almost singlehandedly guided Denver to a victory. He now returns to his home court in Denver, where he's averaged a triple-double this year.

In fact, the Nuggets have dominated as a whole when playing inside Ball Arena. They own a 36-7 record and have also posted the best average scoring margin in the league during home games (+10.2). Keep in mind that Denver owns a 19-10 record immediately following a loss this season as well, so we expect them to bounce back.

Final Score Prediction: Timberwolves: 108 | Nuggets: 116

Check out more of The Duel's NBA Playoffs content:


Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Best Bet

The home team has won the first quarter in three of the first four games of this series, and a tie in Game 3 was the only time the trend missed. Denver earned a 3-point lead at the end of the first quarter in Game 1 before jumping out to a 9-point lead at the end of the first quarter in Game 2.

Those results line up with what the Nuggets have been doing all year as they finished third in first quarter points per home game (30.8) and eighth in opponent first quarter points per home game (27.2). That average first quarter margin of +3.7 ranked as the fourth-best mark in the NBA as well, so back Denver to get off to another strong start in Game 5.

Bet: First Quarter Spread - Denver Nuggets -2.5 (-118)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.