Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 11 SEC Tournament (Aggies Defense Shines)

Updated: Sep 10, 5:00pm UTC

Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt Game Info

2022-23 NCAA Basketball SEC Tournament Game
No. 18 Texas A&M (24-8, 15-3 SEC) vs. Vanderbilt (20-13, 11-7 SEC)
Date: Saturday, March 11, 2023
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Venue: Bridgestone Arena -- Nashville, Tennessee
Coverage: ESPN

The No. 18 Texas A&M Aggies and Vanderbilt Commodores collide in an SEC Tournament semifinal matchup in one of many NCAA college basketball games slated for Saturday, March 11.

Texas A&M is coming off a strong defensive effort in its 67-61 win over Arkansas less than 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt surprised a lot of people in its 80-73 upset victory against No. 23 Kentucky which saw the trio of Ezra Manjon, Jordan Wright, and Tyrin Lawrence combine for 61 points.

Can Texas A&M advance to the SEC Tournament final for the second straight season? Or does Vanderbilt have what it takes to make its first championship game appearance in over a decade?

Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt Odds & Spread

All college basketball betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: TX A&M: (-260) | VANDY: (+210)
Spread: TX A&M: -6.5 (-105) | VANDY: +6.5 (-115)
Total: 140.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Texas A&M enters this contest as the clear favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 3:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 140.5 points with both sides available at -110 odds.

Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt Betting Trends

Against the spread, Texas A&M is 22-10-0 this season.
The Aggies have an ATS record of 11-5 as 5.5-point favorites or more.
Texas A&M has seen 15 of its 32 games go over the point total.
Against the spread, Vanderbilt is 19-14-0 this season.
As 5.5-point underdogs or greater, the Commodores are 8-4 against the spread.
Vanderbilt has seen 19 of its 33 games hit the over.

Texas A&M Rank	Texas A&M AVG		Vanderbilt AVG	Vanderbilt Rank
141st	73.1	Points Scored	72.4	162nd
51st	65.4	Points Allowed	71.6	226th
48th	34.2	Rebounds	33.4	81st
23rd	10.8	Off. Rebounds	10.0	54th
313th	6.0	3pt Made	8.5	62nd
212th	12.6	Assists	11.7	291st
185th	11.9	Turnovers	9.9	22nd

Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt Prediction & Pick

Texas A&M and Vanderbilt are fairly even on offense as just 0.7 PPG separate their scoring averages. Keeping that in mind, Texas A&M's superior defense gives it the edge here. The Aggies only give up 65.4 PPG (No. 41) on 40.1% shooting (No. 14) and have surrendered exactly 61 points in each of their last three games.

On the other side, Vanderbilt allows 71.6 PPG (No. 210) while allowing opponents to hit 42.9% of their field goals (No. 111). The Commodores also already lost 72-66 to the Aggies back in January. A big part of that loss was Vanderbilt's 24 fouls, which Texas A&M took advantage of by hitting 23 free throws.

I see foul trouble playing a role in Vanderbilt's downfall again today. The Commodores average 16.4 personal fouls per game (No. 137), which only increases to 18.6 away from home. Meanwhile, Texas A&M draws the 11th-most fouls in the nation (20.3) and hits 76.2% of its free throws (No. 37).

Vanderbilt will push at times, but this is clearly Texas A&M's game to lose.

Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M: 74 | Vanderbilt: 66

Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt Best Bet

I recommend backing the total going under 140.5 points as the best bet for this game. On top of neither team being an offensive powerhouse, the under is 6-2 in Texas A&M's last eight games. Furthermore, eight of the last 10 matchups between the Aggies and Commodores have seen fewer than 140.5 points scored.

After the two sides combined for just 138 points in their last meeting, don't expect any fireworks tonight.

Bet: Under 140.5 Points (-110)

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.