NFL - Odds & Predictions

Texans vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Week 12 (Miami Shreds Houston Defense at Hard Rock Stadium)

Devon Platana
Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins prediction, odds and betting trends for NFL Week 12.
Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins prediction, odds and betting trends for NFL Week 12. / AP Photos/Rebecca Blackwell
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Texans vs Dolphins Week 12 Game Info

2022 NFL Regular Season Game
Houston Texans (1-8-1, 1-4 Away) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-3, 4-1 Home)
Date: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, FL
Coverage: CBS

Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season includes an AFC showdown between the struggling Houston Texans and red-hot Miami Dolphins. The Texans were defeated yet again last week — a 23-10 loss to the Washington Commanders — and now fall to 0-5 following their bye week.

Nearly the complete opposite, the Dolphins have won four straight games since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup. Miami is well-rested after getting last week off and hopes to pick up where it left off following its 39-17 victory against the Cleveland Browns in Week 10.

Texans vs Dolphins Odds & Spread

All NFL betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: HOU: (+610) | MIA: (-900)
Spread: HOU: +14 (-105) | MIA: -14 (-115)
Total: 46.5 —Over: (-118) | Under: (-104)

Updated (Sunday, Nov. 27, 10:30 a.m. EST): The line has moved further in Miami's favor. Originally as 12.5-point favorite, the Dolphins are now favored by 14 points. This is also reflective with their massive -900 moneyline odds. The over/under shifted up slightly to 46.5 points.

The Dolphins enter this contest as heavy favorites on the moneyline and spread on FanDuel Sportsbook's updated odds. This AFC clash also features an over/under of 45.5, which is about average compared to the Week 12 totals. 

Texans vs Dolphins Prediction & Pick

With the Dolphins' recent surge, there's little reason to have faith in the Texans putting up much of a fight. On top of averaging just 14.6 points in their last five games, the Texans also own the second-worst point differential -7.1 in the NFL this season while the Dolphins own a +7.0 rate at home (No. 5).

Houston also gives up the second-most total yards per game, so Miami's playmakers shouldn't have any problems getting involved. The Dolphins can do a lot of damage both on the ground and through the air whereas the Texans simply don't have the personnel to keep up.

Expect the Dolphins to get a huge lead early on and not look back.

Final Score Prediction: Dolphins: 33 | Texans: 10

Texans vs Dolphins Betting Trends

- Houston is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
- Miami is 10-1 straight up in its last 11 home games.
- The total has hit the under in four of Houston's last six games.
- The total has hit the under in seven of Miami's last eight games against the AFC South.

Texans vs Dolphins Best Bet

I can see how a 12.5-point spread might be intimidating to some, but the Dolphins can win this one by multiple touchdowns. The offense is definitely there, whereas the same can't be said for the Texans when it comes to keeping things close. The average loss margin of Houston's five-game skid is 11.6 points, after all — barely lower than the spread.

Taking into account that the Texans are 1-4 against the spread since Week 7, give me the Dolphins covering at home.

Bet: Dolphins -12.5 (-110)

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Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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