TCU vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl (Wolverines' Defense Steps Up)

Isaiah De Los Santos
TCU vs Michigan odds, prediction and betting trends for NCAA College Football Playoff semifinal game.
TCU vs Michigan odds, prediction and betting trends for NCAA College Football Playoff semifinal game. / (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
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TCU vs Michigan Fiesta Bowl Game Info

2022 College Football Playoff Semifinal Game - Fiesta Bowl
No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-1) vs. No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (13-0)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022
Time: 4 p.m. ET
Venue: State Farm Stadium — Glendale, AZ
Coverage: ESPN

The College Football Playoffs includes an exciting semifinal matchup between No. 3 TCU and No. 2 Michigan in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl.

The Horned Frogs' undefeated season came to a heartbreaking end in the Big 12 Championship Game, losing 31-28 to Kansas State in overtime. Quarterback Max Duggan did all he could to will his team to victory, recording 251 passing yards and another 110 on the ground in the defeat.

The Wolverines, meanwhile, will look to keep their perfect campaign going with a win on New Year's Eve. Michigan took care of business in the Big Ten Championship, dispatching Purdue 43-22 as running back Donovan Edwards popped off for 185 yards and a touchdown.

TCU vs Michigan Odds & Spread

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: TCU: (+285) | MICH: (-365)
Spread: TCU: +9.5 (-110) | MICH: -9.5 (-110)
Total: 59.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Odds to Win National Championship: TCU: (+1800) | MICH: (+250)

Michigan enters this contest as a clear home favorite on the moneyline and spread. This clash also features a whopping total of 59.5 points, one of the highest among the college football bowl game slate.

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TCU vs Michigan Prediction & Pick

These are two powerhouses going up against one another in the Fiesta Bowl. TCU's offense, behind Heisman contender Duggan, has been one of the most explosive across the country this season. Averaging over 40 points and 473 yards per game, the Horned Frogs are a handful for any defense.

However, the Wolverines are one of the few teams equipped to match them, posting nearly identical PPG and YPG. The difference in this contest will likely be Michigan's dominant defense. Jim Harbaugh's group ranks in the top three for fewest points and yards per game allowed, making this team a threat on both sides of the ball.

TCU showed its weaknesses in the Big 12 Championship, and Michigan should control this contest throughout.

Final Score Prediction: TCU: 23 | Michigan: 35

TCU vs Michigan Betting Trends

- TCU is 9-3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
- The total has hit the over in seven of TCU's 13 games this season.
- Michigan is 8-4-1 ATS this season.
- The total has hit the under in eight of Michigan's 13 games this season.

TCU vs Michigan Best Bet

It's hard to overstate how good the Wolverines have been on defense in 2022. This unit has given up more than 23 points just once this season. They held the likes of then-No. 10 Penn State and then-No. 2 Ohio State to 17 and 23 points, respectively, showing just how great this team is at shutting down explosive offenses.

It'd be no surprise to see Jim Harbaugh's group get out to an early big lead over a beatable TCU defense and grind this game out with a trip to the National Championship on the line. I'm siding with the under here, which has already hit in eight of Michigan's 13 games this year.

Bet: Under 59.5 (-110)


Isaiah De Los Santos is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Isaiah De Los Santos also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username zayyy05328. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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