TCU vs Arizona State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 17 NCAA Tournament Game (Horned Frogs' Defense Shines)

Devon Platana
TCU vs Arizona State prediction, odds and betting insights for 2022-23 NCAA Tournament game.
TCU vs Arizona State prediction, odds and betting insights for 2022-23 NCAA Tournament game. / AP Photo/LM Otero

TCU vs Arizona State Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Tournament Game
  • No. 22 TCU (21-12) vs. Arizona State (23-12)
  • Date: Friday, March 17, 2023
  • Time: 10:05 PM ET
  • Venue: Ball Arena -- Denver, Colorado
  • Coverage: truTV

The 2022-23 NCAA Tournament's first round continues on Friday, March 17 with a West Region tilt between the No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs and No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils.

TCU's Big 12 Tournament run came to a disappointing end with a 66-60 loss to Texas in the semifinals. On the other side, Arizona State picked up a huge 98-73 win over Nevada on Wednesday to make it out of the First Four and into Round 1.

Can Arizona State keep the momentum coming with another win? Or will TCU put the Sun Devils in their place?

TCU vs Arizona State Odds & Spread

TCU enters this contest as a clear favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 10:05 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 140.5 points with the over being favored at -115 odds.

TCU vs Arizona State Betting Trends

  • TCU is 16-17-0 against the spread this year.
  • The Horned Frogs' ATS record as 5.5-point favorites or more is 6-7.
  • Out of 33 TCU's games so far this year, 16 have gone over the total.
  • Against the spread, Arizona State is 16-19-0 this year.
  • As 5.5-point underdogs or more, the Sun Devils are 5-3 against the spread.
  • There have been 18 Arizona State games (out of 35) that went over the total this year.
TCU Rank TCU AVG Arizona State AVG Arizona State Rank
96th 75.2 Points Scored 71.1 192nd
114th 67.9 Points Allowed 67.9 114th
89th 33.2 Rebounds 32.9 107th
44th 10.2 Off. Rebounds 9.2 109th
339th 5.5 3pt Made 7.6 154th
17th 16.2 Assists 14.4 84th
158th 11.7 Turnovers 11.3 120th

TCU vs Arizona State Prediction & Pick

Arizona State's offense was rolling against Nevada, but that was an anomaly. The Sun Devils average typically average 71.1 PPG (T-No. 168) on 41.9% shooting from the floor (No. 299). Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs operate on a 75.2 PPG clip (No. 71) while sinking 45.7% of their field-goal attempts (No. 84).

Arizona State may have the better perimeter offense, but TCU only allows 6.2 threes per game (No. 53) on 30.4% shooting (No. 20). The Horned Frogs' defense also generates the 21st-most turnovers per game and will be pressuring the Sun Devils to make mistakes all night long.

With a 77.8% winning percentage in its last 18 games as the favorite, it's easy to see why backing TCU is the right call here.

Final Score Prediction: TCU: 78 | Arizona State: 72

TCU vs Arizona State Best Bet

While a 5.5-point spread isn't too much to cover, TCU is an abysmal 3-8 ATS in its last 11 outings, as well as 1-5 ATS in its last six games on Friday. Arizona State is far from a spread darling, but it is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 contests as the underdog.

Keeping that in mind, let's cast a safety net by going with TCU winning by anywhere between one and 10 points. Not only does it provide more value than the spread, but it also takes into account ASU keeping things closer than expected.

Bet: TCU to Win by 1 to 10 Points (+168)

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.