Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Monday 9/5/22

Starting at 12:35 p.m. ET, we have 12 races on Monday at Saratoga. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets to make at FanDuel Racing.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and don't forget to monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).

Saratoga Betting

According to numberFire Racing's projections, these are the best bets to make at FanDuel Racing today.

1. Waterville and Stella Mars, Race 6

FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/2 and 6/1
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Race 6 is an Allowance race for NY-bred fillies and mares at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. The numberFire data projects Stella Mars (6/1) to win and Caramocha (5/2) to challenge if the race is moved to the main dirt track with rain in the forecast.

Stella Mars has a pair of runner-up finishes in her last two starts. Waterville (9/2) has tactical speed and has run well in all four races with top jockey Luis Saez riding for leading trainer Christophe Clement. Her last race here a month ago was a wide trip when she rallied to finish a neck behind the winner in third and a head behind runner-up Whatlovelookslike (7/2). New Ginya (4/1) is also a challenger in the exacta and trifecta for trainer Clement off her runner-up finish last race.

2. Reckless Spirit and Voliero, Race 9

FanDuel Racing Odds: 4/1 and 8/1
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Race 9 is a Starter Allowance at 1 1/8 miles on the inner turf. The numberFire top challengers are Reckless Spirit (4/1), Bold Victory (8/5) and Corkman (7/2). The latter two will only run if the race is moved off the turf to the dirt.

Reckless Spirt is dangerous with Luis Saez riding. He was beaten as the 2/1 favorite last race, but got the wrong trip.

Jose Ortiz rides Voliero (8/1), who was claimed last race by trainer Jose Camejo. He's had success off the claim sending live runners to the meet.

3. Mo Strike and Forte, Race 11

FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 3/1
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Race 11 is the annual closing day feature with the $300,000 Hopeful Stakes for 2-year-olds at 7 furlongs. Just six juveniles lined up, and the numberFire algorithm calls for Gulfport (9/5) to win as the favorite over Mo Strike (5/2) and Forte (3/1).

Gulfport lost the Saratoga Special (G2) here as the odds-on choice. But the son of amazing sire Uncle Mo impressively won a minor stakes during the previous race with a top-102 speed figure.

Mo Strike seeks to make it three in a row after winning the Grade 3 Sanford early in the meet. He's shown the ability to finish and should handle added ground.

Forte was impressive in his career debut before finishing behind Mo Strike in the Sanford. He was compromised in that race by both the moderate pace and intense kickback during the meet's opening week. He galloped out strong, and now on closing day he's live at a better price than the top two with the meet's top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding for top trainer Todd Pletcher.