San Diego State vs Charleston Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 16 NCAA Tournament Game (Defenses Dominate)

Larry Rupp
San Diego State vs Charleston prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA Tournament game.
San Diego State vs Charleston prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA Tournament game. / AP Photos/Steve Marcus

San Diego State vs Charleston Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Tournament Game
  • No. 20 San Diego State (27-6) vs. Charleston (SC) (31-3)
  • Date: Thursday, March 16, 2023
  • Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Amway Center -- Orlando, Florida
  • Coverage: truTV

The 2023 NCAA Tournament continues on Thursday with a thrilling Round of 64 matchup between the No. 12 College of Charleston Cougars and No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs. Charleston is in the Big Dance for only the sixth time in school history, while San Diego State is back for the third year in a row.

The Cougars enter on a 10-game winning streak that was extended with a 63-58 victory over UNC Wilmington in the CAA title game. Meanwhile, the Aztecs have won 10 of their last 11 games and captured the MWC title with a 62-57 win over Utah State.

Which team will advance to the next round? Let's take a closer look.

San Diego State vs Charleston Odds & Spread

San Diego State enters this contest as a moderate favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 3:10 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 141.5 points, which is about average compared to Thursday's projected totals.

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San Diego State vs Charleston Betting Trends

  • San Diego State has 16 wins in 32 games against the spread this year.
  • The Aztecs are 13-10 as 4.5-point favorites or more.
  • San Diego State has played 32 games this season, and 14 of them have gone over the total.
  • Charleston (SC) is 19-14-0 against the spread this season.
  • The Cougars are yet to lose ATS (2-0) as a 4.5-point underdog or greater this year.
  • There have been 14 Charleston (SC) games (out of 33) that hit the over this year.
San Diego State Rank San Diego State AVG Charleston (SC) AVG Charleston (SC) Rank
171st 72.1 Points Scored 80.8 14th
28th 63.6 Points Allowed 67.4 98th
112th 32.8 Rebounds 37.4 2nd
94th 9.4 Off. Rebounds 12 1st
201st 7.2 3pt Made 10.1 9th
150th 13.4 Assists 13.8 121st
81st 10.9 Turnovers 11.7 159th

San Diego State vs Charleston Prediction & Pick

San Diego State was dealt a tough hand. Not only do the Aztecs have to travel across the country to play, but they have to face a Charleston team that has only lost three games this year. The Cougars are a dangerous 12-seed as they rank among the top 20 teams in offensive and defensive efficiency.

The Aztecs' defense is what will make all the difference here, though. San Diego State is allowing only 63.8 points per game (No. 26 in NCAA) on an opponent shooting percentage of 41.6% (No. 48). It is also averaging 6.0 blocks over its last three games, which has led to an increase in fast break scoring.

I side with the Aztecs here in a win that would end their four-game NCAA Tournament losing streak.

Final Score Prediction: San Diego State: 70 | Charleston: 66

San Diego State vs Charleston Best Bet

This one could go down to the wire, which makes shifting gears to the point total a logical move. After all, not one of San Diego State's last seven NCAA Tournament games has featured more than 141 points. The total has hit the under in each of San Diego State's last eight games this season as well.

The under has also cashed in five of Charleston's six games played on a neutral court this season. The Cougars are going to need some time to warm up to playing in front of a massive crowd, while San Diego State remains a defensive-minded team. That is not a recipe for an offensive shootout.

Bet: Under 141.5 Total Points (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.