Saint Mary's vs BYU Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 6 WCC Tournament (Cougars Put Up a Fight in Paradise)

Larry Rupp
Saint Mary's vs BYU prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA WCC Semifinal game.
Saint Mary's vs BYU prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA WCC Semifinal game. / AP Photos/Godofredo A. Vásquez

Saint Mary's (CA) vs BYU Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball WCC Tournament Game
  • No. 17 Saint Mary's (CA) (25-6, 14-2 WCC) vs. BYU (19-14, 7-9 WCC)
  • Date: Monday, March 6, 2023
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Orleans Arena -- Paradise, Nevada
  • Coverage: ESPN

A spot in the WCC Tournament final is on the line as the BYU Cougars and Saint Mary's Gaels battle it ou on Monday night. BYU has cruised to double-digit wins over Portland and Loyola Marymount to get to this point. Both games featured at least eight different Cougars getting on the score sheet.

Meanwhile, Saint Mary's has enjoyed a triple bye as the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Gaels fell short in a 77-68 loss to Gonzaga their last time out on Feb. 25. Logan Johnson and Aidan Mahaney are each averaging over 14.5 points per game this year. Which WCC team will move on to the final?

Saint Mary's (CA) vs BYU Odds & Spread

Saint Mary's enters this contest as a considerable favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 9 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 128.5 points, which is below average compared to Monday's projected totals.

Saint Mary's (CA) vs BYU Betting Trends

  • Saint Mary's (CA) has covered the spread 16 times in 30 games.
  • Against the spread as 6.5-point favorites or more, the Gaels are 13-13.
  • Out of 30 Saint Mary's (CA)'s games so far this season, 15 have hit the over.
  • BYU's record against the spread is 17-14-0.
  • The Cougars are yet to lose ATS (6-0) as a 6.5-point underdog or more this year.
  • BYU has seen 15 of its 31 games hit the over.
Saint Mary's (CA) Rank Saint Mary's (CA) AVG BYU AVG BYU Rank
180th 71.9 Points Scored 75.7 86th
5th 59.3 Points Allowed 69.7 167th
108th 32.9 Rebounds 33.9 58th
111th 9.2 Off. Rebounds 9.2 111th
119th 7.9 3pt Made 8.2 90th
210th 12.7 Assists 14.8 63rd
12th 9.5 Turnovers 13.9 330th

Saint Mary's (CA) vs BYU Prediction & Pick

It's worth reliving the two times these teams met in the regular season. The Cougars held onto a two-point lead in the first game before the Gaels went on a 4-1 run in the final minute to win 57-56. In the second meeting, Saint Mary's earned a 71-65 home victory over BYU thanks to 21 free throw tries.

It's safe to expect an intensely close battle again on Monday night. What this game may come down to is fatigue. BYU is about to play its third game in the last four days and it will be against a defense that allows only 59.1 points per game (No. 4 in NCAA) on a shooting mark of 40.7% (No. 24 in NCAA).

Saint Mary's has won 16 of its last 18 games overall, so trust the Gaels to emerge victorious here.

Final Score Prediction: Saint Mary's: 67 | BYU: 63

Saint Mary's (CA) vs BYU Best Bet

Asking the Gaels to advance to the championship game with a win over the Cougars is one thing, but asking them to cover a 6.5-point spread is too much. After all, Saint Mary's is a dismal 0-6 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games against BYU. It is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games overall as well.

BYU is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall and has not lost to Saint Mary's by a margin of more than six points since January of 2019. The Gaels have to be careful to not look ahead to a potential rubber match against Gonzaga as this Cougars team is playing with nothing to lose. They'll keep it close.

Bet: BYU Cougars +6.5 (-102)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.