Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for January 16 (Spartans Earn Valuable Win in Big Ten Play)

Larry Rupp
Purdue vs Michigan State prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball regular season game.
Purdue vs Michigan State prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball regular season game. / AP Photos/Ryan Collerd

Purdue vs Michigan State Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Regular Season Game
  • No. 3 Purdue (16-1, 5-1 Big Ten) vs. Michigan State (12-5, 4-2 Big Ten)
  • Date: Monday, January 16, 2023
  • Time: 2:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Jack Breslin Students Events Center -- East Lansing, Michigan

The 2022-23 college basketball season continues on Monday with a thrilling matchup between the No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans. Purdue is coming off a dominant 73-55 win over Nebraska on Friday. Flethcer Loyer tallied a team-high 27 points on an 8-of-15 shooting mark.

Meanwhile, Michigan State saw its seven-game winning streak come to an end with a 75-66 loss to Illinois on Friday. The Spartans failed to make any of their attempts from three-point range and forced only 5 turnovers. AJ Hoggard racked up 20 points (8-of-16 shooting) and 4 rebounds in the defeat.

Purdue vs Michigan State Odds & Spread

Purdue enters this contest as small road favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 2:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 133.5 points, which is below average compared to Monday's projected totals.

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Purdue vs Michigan State Betting Trends

  • Against the spread, Purdue is 7-10-0 this year.
  • The Boilermakers' ATS record as 3.5-point favorites or more is 3-10.
  • There have been six Purdue's games (out of 17) that went over the total this season.
  • Michigan State is 9-8-0 against the spread this year.
  • The Spartans' ATS record as 3.5-point underdogs or greater is 3-2.
  • This year, nine of Michigan State's 17 games have gone over the point total.
Purdue Rank Purdue AVG Michigan State AVG Michigan State Rank
100th 75.8 Points Scored 70.1 219th
23rd 61.1 Points Allowed 65.5 83rd
4th 37.9 Rebounds 34.4 83rd
15th 11.6 Off. Rebounds 7.7 263rd
169th 7.6 3pt Made 6.9 241st
52nd 15.4 Assists 15.5 50th
29th 10.4 Turnovers 10.5 33rd

Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction & Pick

This game lines up as a classic Big Ten battle. Purdue is only allowing 61.1 points per game on the season (No. 17 in NCAA), while Michigan State has given up 60 points or less in four of its last five home games. The edge in this Monday afternoon matchup needs to be found on the offensive side.

The Spartans are shooting a reliable 37.0% from beyond the arc this season (No. 49 in NCAA), while Purdue is only shooting 32.6% (No. 235 in NCAA). Michigan State is also turning the ball over just 10.9 times per home game, which helps limit fast break opportunities and easy buckets for the opponent.

Michigan State is 11-0 straight up in its last 11 Monday home games, too, so I'll back the underdog.

Final Score Prediction: Purdue: 66 | Michigan State: 69

Purdue vs Michigan State Best Bet

Bettors may be hesitant to back the Spartans outright, but they should not be hesitant to back them on a 3.5-point spread. Michigan State is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games overall and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against a Big Ten opponent. Head coach Tom Izzo has found his groove.

Purdue is only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games and 2-4 ATS in its last six games played on a Monday. While the Boilermakers are one of the best teams in the Big Ten, a loss does little to impact their national title chances. The Spartans need every win they can get, so expect them to be motivated.

Bet: Michigan State +3.5 (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.