Pittsburgh vs Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 14 NCAA Tournament Game (Panthers Advance)

Larry Rupp
Pittsburgh vs Mississippi State prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA Tournament game.
Pittsburgh vs Mississippi State prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA Tournament game. / AP Photos/John Amis

Pittsburgh vs Mississippi State Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Tournament Game
  • Pittsburgh (22-11) vs. Mississippi State (22-12)
  • Date: Tuesday, March 14, 2023
  • Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
  • Venue: UD Arena -- Dayton, OH
  • Coverage: truTV

The 2023 NCAA Tournament kicks off on Tuesday with an exciting First Four matchup between the No. 11 Pittsburgh Panthers and No. 11 Mississippi State Bulldogs. Pittsburgh is making its first appearance in the Big Dance since 2016, while Mississippi State is back for the first time since 2019.

The Panthers have emerged victorious in nine of their last 13 games but fell short in a 96-69 loss to Duke in the ACC quarterfinals. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have also won nine of their last 13 games, but couldn't keep up in a 72-49 loss to Alabama in the SEC quarterfinals.

Which team will advance to play Iowa State? Let's explore.

Pittsburgh vs Mississippi State Odds & Spread

Mississippi State enters this contest as a slight favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 9:10 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 133.5 points, which is about average compared to the First Four's projected totals.

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Pittsburgh vs Mississippi State Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh is 1-4 straight up in its last five games against an SEC opponent.
  • The total has hit the over in six of Pittsbugh's last seven games.
  • Mississippi State is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
  • The total has hit the under in four of Mississippi State's last five games against an ACC opponent.

Pittsburgh vs Mississippi State Prediction & Pick

Mississippi State relies on its defense to win games. The Bulldogs rank outside the top 250 teams in offensive efficiency but inside the top 10 in defensive efficiency as well as points allowed per game. That defense is going to have to be at the top of its game to beat the Panthers on Tuesday.

The Panthers have stepped their game up as of late, averaging 78.0 points on a shooting percentage of 48.5% over their last three games. Keep in mind they have already taken down a defensive-minded team in Virginia this year, too. That experience will help Pittsburgh find Mississippi State's weak spots.

Fade a Mississippi State team that hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 2008 in this one.

Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh: 71 | Mississippi State: 65

Pittsburgh vs Mississippi State Best Bet

It's hard to look at Mississippi State's stats and expect them to keep up with a Pittsburgh team that ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs play at a very slow pace (313th in possessions per game) and rank dead last in the country when it comes to three-point shooting percentage (26.6%).

The Panthers know how to get the the rim with powerful drives and knock down open shots from beyond the arc, too. They are worth trusting as they are 8-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 12 contests. On the other side, Mississippi State is a dismal 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games in March.

Bet: Pittsburgh Panthers ML (+105)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.