Pelicans vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for December 4 (New Orleans' Defense Shines at Home)

Larry Rupp
New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA regular season game.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA regular season game. / AP Photos/Jack Dempsey
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Pelicans vs. Nuggets Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, December 4, 2022
  • Time: 3:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Smoothie King Center -- New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Coverage: BSNO and ALT

The 2022-23 NBA season continues on Sunday with eight more games, including a battle between the Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans. The Nuggets are coming off a 117-109 loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Friday. Nikola Jokic led Denver's efforts with 24 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans took down the San Antonio Spurs by a score of 117-99 on Friday to earn their third consecutive win. Zion Williamson put together his best performance of the season, tallying 30 points, 15 rebounds and 8 assists. Jonas Valciaunas chipped in with 21 points and 11 rebounds.

Pelicans vs. Nuggets Odds & Spread

  • All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: DEN: (-102) | NO: (-116)
  • Spread: DEN: +1 (-110) | NO: -1 (-110)
  • Total: 230.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Pelicans enter this contest as slight home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 3:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 230 points, which is about average compared to the rest of Sunday's projected totals.

Pelicans vs. Nuggets Betting Trends

  • The Nuggets went 36-44-2 ATS last season.
  • As 0.5-point underdogs or more, the Pelicans went 27-32 against the spread last season.
  • Last season, the combined scoring went over the point total 47 times in Nuggets games.
  • Last year, 33 of the Pelicans' 82 games hit the over.

Pelicans vs. Nuggets Prediction & Pick

These two teams have found very similar success on offense this season. Both Denver and New Orleans average at least 115.0 points per game and rank among the top six teams in offensive efficiency as well. It's obviously a big reason why each team enters Sunday with a 14-8 record.

The difference is in each squad's defense. The Nuggets rank 26th in defensive efficiency and are allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 48.8% (No. 29 in NBA). The Pelicans rank third in defensive efficiency and give up an opponent shooting percentage of only 46.0% (No. 9 in NBA).

New Orleans has also won five of its last six home games, so I'll back the Pelicans here.

Final Score Prediction: Pelicans: 114 | Nuggets: 110

Pelicans vs. Nuggets Best Bet

This point total seems to be set a bit too high. Despite the Pelicans' offensive dominance, the total has still hit the under in eight of their last 12 games. It has also hit the under in seven of New Orleans' last nine games against Denver. Each of the seven games that hit the under saw less than 227 points.

It's worth mentioning that the Pelicans have the size to slow down Jokic, too. Williamson's defense around the rim keeps improving as New Orleans is allowing only 46.5 points in the paint per home game (No. 8 in NBA). Keeping the two-time All-Star from finishing easy buckets will help the under.

Bet: Under 230.5 Points (-110)

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Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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