Patriots vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Bets for Week 18 (Buffalo Dashes New England's Playoff Hopes)

Tyler Maher
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills prediction, odds and best bets for NFL Week 18 game.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills prediction, odds and best bets for NFL Week 18 game. / ASSOCIATED PRESS
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Patriots vs Bills Week 18 Game Info

2022 NFL Regular Season — Week 18
New England Patriots (8-8, 4-4 Away) vs. Buffalo Bills (12-3, 6-1 Home)  
Date: Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023
Time: 1 p.m.
Venue: Highmark Stadium — Orchard Park, NY
Coverage: CBS

The final week of the NFL regular season features an AFC East showdown between two division rivals with their eyes on the playoffs. The New England Patriots can secure a postseason berth with a win, while the Buffalo Bills are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Can the Patriots punch their ticket to the dance with a huge road win? Or will the Bills potentially knock them out of the playoffs with another victory over their divisional foes?

Patriots vs Bills Odds & Spread

All NFL betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: NE: (+260) | BUF: (-320)
Spread: NE: +7 (-110) | BUF: -7 (-110)
Total: 43.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Bills enter this contest as heavy home favorites on the moneyline and spread on FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This pivotal clash also features a total of 43.5 points, which is about average compared to the rest of the Week 18 slate.

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Patriots vs Bills Prediction & Pick

The Patriots managed to keep their playoff hopes alive with a gritty win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, and they even control their own destiny. They can guarantee a playoff spot with a win over the Bills, but don't expect that to happen.

For starters, Buffalo has been a much better team this season, especially on offense. While both teams feature elite defenses, New England is painfully average on offense, ranking 17th in scoring and 26th in yards. The Bills, on the other hand, are outstanding on both sides of the ball, ranking fourth in points for while giving up the second-fewest.

The Patriots have struggled mightily against good teams this year and have yet to beat a team that currently has a winning record. Buffalo has the upper hand in the rivalry as well, winning their last three meetings.

New England's offense won't be able to keep up with the Bills' explosive passing attack, especially on the road. The Patriots' mediocre offense (especially in the red zone) and penchant for ill-timed penalties will ultimately prevent them from pulling off the upset.

Final Score Prediction: Bills: 24 | Patriots: 17

Patriots vs Bills Betting Trends

- The Bills are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last five home games.
- The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
- The total has gone under in nine of Buffalo's last 13 games.
- New England is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 trips to Buffalo.

Patriots vs Bills Best Bet

The Patriots may be outgunned, but expect them to put up a fight with their season on the line. Their defense will keep the score close and their run-heavy approach will keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands, preventing the Bills from pulling away.

Buffalo should win, but doing so by more than a touchdown will be difficult. Four of New England's last six losses have been by seven points or less, so back the Pats to cover the spread.

Bet: New England Patriots +7 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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