Packers vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Bets for Week 16 (Miami Earns Crucial Christmas Day Victory)

Larry Rupp
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins prediction, odds and best bets for NFL Week 16 game.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins prediction, odds and best bets for NFL Week 16 game. / AP Photos/Adrian Kraus
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Packers vs Dolphins Week 16 Game Info

2022 NFL Regular Season — Week 16
Green Bay Packers (6-8, 2-5 Away) vs. Miami Dolphins (8-6, 5-1 Home)
Date: Sunday, Dec. 25, 2022
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue:
 Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, FL
Coverage: FOX

The Miami Dolphins will look to get back in the win column when they host the Green Bay Packers in Week 16 NFL action. The Packers defeated the Los Angeles Rams, 24-12, on Monday night behind a stellar defensive show. Rasul Douglas nabbed an interception, while Preston Smith tallied 2.0 sacks.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins fell short in a 32-29 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. It was Miami's third loss in a row and sent the team spiraling down the AFC standings. The wide receiver duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill balled out once again with 183 yards and 2 scores on 12 receptions, though.

Packers vs Dolphins Odds & Spread

All NFL betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: GB: (+176) | MIA: (-210)
Spread: GB: +4.5 (-112) | MIA: -4.5 (-108)
Total: 48.5 — Over: (-114) | Under: (-106)

The Dolphins enter this contest as notable home favorites on the moneyline and spread on FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This Christmas Day clash also features one of the higher totals on the Week 16 slate at 48.5 points.

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Packers vs Dolphins Prediction & Pick

The good news for the Dolphins is that their dreaded three-game road trip is over. They return home to Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, where they have posted an average scoring margin of +8.3 on the year. Miami also allows only 308.3 yards (No. 8 in NFL) and 15.3 points (No. 2 in NFL) at home in 2022.

The Packers have started to find their groove as of late, but this is still a team that ranks tied for 20th in points per game (20.5) and owns a turnover differential of -3 on the season. An injury to running back AJ Dillon could also leave Green Bay with limited backfield depth in this important matchup, too.

I expect the Dolphins team that has won 11 of its last 12 home games to win on Christmas Day.

Final Score Prediction: Packers: 20 | Dolphins: 30

Packers vs Dolphins Betting Trends

- Green Bay is 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games against an AFC opponent.
- The total has hit the over in four of Green Bay's last five games.
- Miami is 11-1 straight up in its last 12 home games.
- The total has hit the under in eight of Miami's last 11 games against Green Bay.

Packers vs Dolphins Best Bet

It's do or die time for the Dolphins. A loss would put their playoff hopes in trouble, so expect head coach Mike McDaniel to have his guys fired up. Miami is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in its six home games this season and four of their five wins at Hard Rock Stadium have come by at least six points.

On the other side, Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games against an AFC opponent and 3-4 ATS in its seven away games in 2022. Each of the Packers' last four losses have all come by at least six points as well. Look for the Dolphins to build a big early lead and never look back on Sunday.

Bet: Miami Dolphins -4.5 (-108)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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