NCAAF Betting

NC State vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Week 13 (Tar Heels' Offense is Too Strong)

FairwayJay
NC State vs North Carolina prediction, odds and betting trends for NCAA college football game.
NC State vs North Carolina prediction, odds and betting trends for NCAA college football game. / Associated Press
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NC State vs North Carolina Week 13 Game Info

2022 NCAA College Football Game
NC State Wolfpack (7-4, 3-4 ACC) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-2, 6-1 ACC)
Date: Friday, Nov. 25, 2022
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Kenan Memorial Stadium — Chapel Hill, NC
Coverage: ABC

Week 13 of the 2022 NCAA college football season includes an ACC Tobacco Road rivalry game between the NC State Wolf Pack and North Carolina Tar Heels.

North Carolina's 6-game winning streak came crashing down last week in a 21-17 home loss to Georgia Tech as a 21.5-point favorite. North Carolina is expected to fall a handful of spots from last week's No. 13 ranking in the College Football Playoff poll when the CFP Top 25 is released later today.

Meanwhile, rival NC State also lost as a big -17 point favorite to Boston College two weeks ago 21-20, and a second straight loss last week to Louisville, 25-10.

NC State vs North Carolina Odds & Spread

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: NCST: (+195) | NC: (-235)
Spread: NCST: +6.5 (-115) | NC: -6.5 (-105)
Total: 55.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

North Carolina enters this rivalry game as a near TD favorite on the spread (-6.5) and -235 on the moneyline. A win by NC State returns nearly 2/1 odds, or +195. The total is down a few points from Sunday's opener lines in Las Vegas, and currently sits at 55.5 - right at an average over/under in this week's college football games.

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NC State vs North Carolina Prediction & Pick

NC State won this rivalry game last year 34-30 but was outgained by 84 yards and run over at the point of attack. But that was with Devin Leary at quarterback, and he's out for the year since a pectoral injury in early October. The Wolfpack offense has struggled since scoring 9, 22, 20 and 10 points with 30 points in a win over deficient defense of Wake Forest when NC State only gained 315 yards.

North Carolina ranks No. 1 in the ACC in scoring offense at 38 points per game and 493 yards per game - 13 points and 150 yards per game more than NC State even factoring the Wolfpack's production with Leary at quarterback.

NC State's run defense is No. 2 in the ACC, but the Tar Heels will pass their way to success with freshman QB Drake Maye ranking top-3 among all FBS signal-callers with 34 passing TD's and 3,614 passing yards. Tar Heels WR Josh Downs leads all ACC wide receivers averaging 98 receiving yards per game despite his worst game last week (31 yards).

North Carolina's defense is the worst in the ACC allowing 453 YPG, 6.1 yards per play and 45 touchdowns. But NC State won't be able to keep pace with the Tar Heels offense. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman passed for 397 yards against NC State, but 3 INT's were costly in defeat. North Carolina and QB Maye won't make those mistakes in victory.

Final Score Prediction: North Carolina: 34 | NC State: 23

NC State vs North Carolina Betting Trends

- NC State is 1-7 against the spread (ATS0 in their last 8 games.
- NC State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- NC State is 0-5 in their last 5 games vs North Carolina.
- North Carolina is 6-1 straight up (SU) in their last 7 games.
- North Carolina is 16-4 SU in their last 20 home games.

NC State vs North Carolina Best Bet

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

NC State's defense has faced two backup quarterbacks the past two games and lost both. Last week, the Wolfpack played without seven starters, so check injuries and status. That includes to backup QB MJ Morris, whose status is day-to-day after missing last week's game. Third string QB played his first minutes of the season last week and passed for 201 yards. He's on track to make his first career start in this Tobacco Road rivalry game.

North Carolina was clearly in a letdown and lookahead spot last week. The Tar Heels will be much more focuses and ready for the rivalry game, even with the ACC Championship game on deck.

Bet: North Carolina -6.5 (-105)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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