Mississippi State vs Minnesota Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Dec. 11 (Bulldogs Pass First Road Test with Ease)

Larry Rupp
Mississippi State vs Minnesota prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball regular season game.
Mississippi State vs Minnesota prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball regular season game. / AP Photos/Michael Woods
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Mississippi State vs Minnesota Game Info

2022-23 NCAA College Basketball Regular Season Game
No. 23 Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-0, 0-0 Away) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-5, 3-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Williams Arena — Minneapolis, MN
Coverage: Big Ten Network

The 2022-23 college basketball season continues on Sunday with a thrilling matchup between the No. 23 Mississippi State Bulldogs and Minnesota Golden Gophers. Mississippi State is coming off a solid 82-52 win over Mississippi State Valley on Dec. 3 where Tolu Smith logged 24 points and 6 rebounds.

Meanwhile, Minnesota couldn't keep up against Michigan in what ended up being a 90-75 loss on Thursday. The Golden Gophers were led by Ta'Lon Copper's team-high 16 points as they shot a solid 49.1% from the floor. It was their 16 turnovers that proved to make all the difference, however.

Mississippi State vs Minnesota Odds & Spread

All NCAA college basketball betting lines, odds and prop bets.
Moneyline: MSST: (-310) | MINN: (+245)
Spread: MSST: -6.5 (-118) | MINN: +6.5 (-104)
Total: 126.5 —Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Mississippi State enters this contest as notable road favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 8:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 126.5 points, which is below average compared to Sunday's projected totals.

Mississippi State vs Minnesota Prediction & Pick

It's time to stop overlooking this menacing Mississippi State defense. The Bulldogs rank third in defensive efficiency and are allowing only 49.6 points per game as well (No. 1 in NCAA). It's the main reason why they are ranked in the AP Poll (No. 23) for the first time since 2019 following an 8-0 start.

Mississippi State is pressuring contested shots and creating scoring opportunities through its defense. The Bulldogs are forcing 15.9 turnovers per game, which is scary for a Minnesota team that is averaging 13.2 turnovers per contest (No. 133 in NCAA). The Golden Gophers are in trouble here.

Minnesota is 0-7 straight up in its last seven games played on a Sunday and I see that streak growing to eight.

Final Score Prediction: Mississippi State: 67 | Minnesota: 57

Mississippi State vs Minnesota Betting Trends

- Mississippi State is 5-0 straight up in its last five games in December.
- The total has hit the under in eight of Mississippi State's last nine games.
- Minnesota is 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last six home games.
- The total has hit the under in seven of Minnesota's last 10 games.

Mississippi State vs Minnesota Best Bet

Minnesota has struggled to get anything going on offense. It ranks outside the top 190 NCAA teams in statistical categories such as points per game (64.4), shooting percentage (43.2%) and offensive rebounding percentage (24.7%). That is not good considering the Bulldogs' defensive dominance.

Those offensive struggles are part of why the Golden Gophers are just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last six home games. Minnesota is also 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Momentum is on the side of Mississippi State, too, given it has won each of its last two games by at least 20 points.

Bet: Mississippi State Bulldogs -6.5 (-118)

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Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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