Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for 2022 Hawai'i Bowl (Aztecs Find Their Groove)

Larry Rupp
Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State odds, prediction and betting trends for NCAA college football Hawai'i Bowl.
Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State odds, prediction and betting trends for NCAA college football Hawai'i Bowl. / AP Photos/Gary Kazanjian
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Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State Hawai'i Bowl Game Info

2022 College Football Game - Hawai'i Bowl
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7-5) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (7-5)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex — Honolulu, HI
Coverage: ESPN

With the 2022-23 college football regular season in the rearview mirror, bowl games are right around the corner. The Hawai'i Bowl is set for kickoff on Saturday, Dec. 24, and pits the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders against the San Diego State Aztecs. It will be each team's second appearance at the Hawai'i Bowl.

Middle Tennessee finished the regular season with a 7-5 record (4-4 conference), which placed the Blue Raiders fourth in the Conference USA standings. Meanwhile, San Diego State posted a 7-5 (5-3 conference), which was good for second place in the West division of the Mountain West Conference.

Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State Odds & Spread

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: MTSU: (+215) | SDST: (-265)
Spread: MTSU: +6.5 (-104) | SDST: -6.5 (-118)
Total: 49.5 — Over: (-105) | Under: (-115)

San Diego State enters this contest as a notable favorite on the moneyline and spread. This clash also features a total of 49.5 points, which is about average when compare to the rest of the college football bowl game slate.

Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State Prediction & Pick

Middle Tennessee ended the season by winning four of its final five games and has been relying on its ability to create turnovers to win close contests. The Blue Raiders are tied for fifth in the country with 2.1 turnovers forced per game and rank 10th with a turnover differential of +9. That helps them a ton.

San Diego State have been hot as of late, too, winning five of its last seven games. The Aztecs have relied solely on their standout defense to emerge victorious. They average just 19.8 points per game (No. 108 in FBS), but allow only 21.4 points (No. 24 in FBS) on 335.2 yards per game (No. 23 in FBS).

San Diego State has yet to lose a game this season in which it was favored (5-0 record), so give me the Aztecs to earn their third straight bowl game victory.

Final Score Prediction: Middle Tennessee: 21 | San Diego State: 31

Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State Betting Trends

- Middle Tennessee is 5-6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
- The total has hit the over in seven of Middle Tennessee's 12 games this season.
- San Diego State is 5-7 ATS this season.
- The total has hit the under in seven of San Diego State's 12 games this season.

Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State Best Bet

This is a great opportunity for the Aztecs to figure out their problems on offense. The Blue Raiders allow 30.1 points per game (No. 90 in FBS) and 5.5 yards per play on the season (No. 71 in FBS). Balling out in a bowl game on national television would go a long way in building momentum for 2023.

San Diego State's defense has been stellar, but that hasn't stopped the over from cashing in four of its last five games in December. The total has also hit the over in seven of Middle Tennessee's last 10 games as well as in each of its last six games in December. Trust the trends here and back the over.

Bet: Over 49.5 Points (-110)

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Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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