Michigan vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for January 4 (Nittany Lions Pull Off Big Ten Road Upset)

By Duel Staff
Michigan vs Penn State prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball regular season game.
Michigan vs Penn State prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball regular season game. / AP Photos/Charles Rex Arbogast
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Michigan vs Penn State Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Regular Season Game
  • Michigan (8-5, 2-0 Big Ten) vs. Penn State (11-3, 2-1 Big Ten)
  • Date: Wednesday, January 4, 2023
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Crisler Center -- Ann Arbor, Michigan

The 2022-23 college basketball season continues on Wednesday with an exciting matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines. Penn State extended its winning streak to five games with an 83-79 win over Iowa on Sunday. Senior Jalen Pickett tallied 26 points and 7 rebounds.

Meanwhile, Michigan took care of business in a dominant 81-46 win over Maryland on Sunday. Junior Hunter Dickinson led the way with 32 points (13-of-16 shooting) and 12 rebounds. The Wolverines shot 50.0% from the floor as a team and also held the Terrapins to a dismal 26.5% shooting mark.

Michigan vs Penn State Odds & Spread

Michigan enters this contest as notable home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 7 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 141.5 points, which is above average compared to Wednesday's projected totals.

Michigan vs Penn State Betting Trends

  • Michigan's record against the spread is 7-6-0.
  • The Wolverines are 3-6 as 2.5-point favorites or more.
  • Out of 13 Michigan's games so far this year, seven have gone over the total.
  • Penn State's record against the spread is 8-5-0.
  • The Nittany Lions have two wins ATS (2-1) as a 2.5-point underdog or greater this year.
  • This season, five of Penn State's 13 games have gone over the point total.
Michigan Rank Michigan AVG Penn State AVG Penn State Rank
98th 76.3 Points Scored 76 105th
204th 69.4 Points Allowed 66 108th
87th 34.7 Rebounds 32.1 206th
241st 8.1 Off. Rebounds 5.2 357th
167th 7.7 3pt Made 11 5th
216th 13.1 Assists 15.6 57th
7th 9.6 Turnovers 8.5 1st

Michigan vs Penn State Prediction & Pick

This is going to be a hard-fought Big Ten battle. Penn State enters playing its best basketball of the year as it is shooting an impressive 38.8% from three-point range (No. 18 in NCAA). The Nittany Lions are also logging only 8.8 turnovers per game (No. 1 in NCAA), which limits opposing scoring chances.

Michigan has shown time and time again this season that its defense cannot be trusted to shut down elite offenses. The Wolverines are giving up 69.5 points per game, which ranks second-to-last in the Big Ten. They are also allowing a ridiculous 38.1 opponent rebounds per game (No. 316 in NCAA).

Penn State has been embracing the underdog role this year, so give me the Nittany Lions in an upset.

Final Score Prediction: Michigan: 69 | Penn State: 72

Michigan vs Penn State Best Bet

Bettors unwilling to take a chance on backing Penn state on the moneyline at +150 odds should shift gears to the point spread, instead. The Nittany Lions are 14-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last 19 games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a Big Ten opponent. They just get the job done.

Michigan is only 1-4 ATS in its last five Wednesday home games and 1-4 ATS in its last five games against Penn State. The Wolverines swept the Nittany Lions last season, but both wins came by less than 5 points. Look for head coach Micah Shrewsberry's team to be fired up for revenge Wednesday.

Bet: Penn State Nittany Lions +4.5 (-115)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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