Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NHL Playoffs Game 1 (Back a High-Scoring Clash in Toronto)

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds and betting insights for NHL Playoffs Game 1.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds and betting insights for NHL Playoffs Game 1. / AP Photo/Noah K. Murray

The 2022-23 NHL Playoffs continue on Tuesday with a thrilling showdown between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Game Info

  • Toronto Maple Leafs (50-21-11) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (46-30-6)
  • Date: Tuesday, April 18, 2023
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena -- Toronto, Ontario
  • Coverage: ESPN

The Lightning are back in the postseason for the sixth straight year, while the Maple Leafs are back for the seventh straight year. These teams have met once before in the playoffs as Tampa Bay defeated Toronto in a seven-game first round series in 2022.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds & Spread

  • All NHL betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: TOR: (-160) | TB: (+132)
  • Spread: TOR: -1.5 (+155) | TB: +1.5 (-188)
  • Total: 5.5 -- Over: (-130) | Under: (+106)

The Maple Leafs enter this contest as moderate home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 7:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 5.5 goals, with the over favored at -130 odds.

Favorite Underdog Total Spread
Maple Leafs (-154) Lightning (+128) 5.5 Maple Leafs (-1.5)

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Betting Trends

  • Toronto is 13-7 straight up in its last 20 home games.
  • The total has hit the under in seven of Toronto's last 10 games.
  • Tampa Bay is 1-6 straight up in its last seven away games.
  • The total has hit the over in seven of Tampa Bay's last nine games against Toronto.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction & Pick

These teams have had almost completely opposite results over the last three postseasons. Tampa Bay has made it to three straight Stanley Cup Finals, winning two of them, while Toronto has failed to even make it out of the first round. The Lightning defeated the Maple Leafs in the first round last year.

These teams line up similarly on offense, but that is not the case on defense. The Lightning have been a bit subpar as they rank 14th in goals allowed per game and 20th in shots allowed per game. The Maple Leafs have been stellar, ranking among the top-seven teams in both of those categories.

Tampa Bay has lost six of its last seven away games, so fade the Lightning on the road in Game 1.

Final Score Prediction: Maple Leafs: 4 | Lightning: 3

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Best Bet

If history is any indication, fans can expect a high-scoring battle to break out in Game 1 of this series. The total hit the over is five of the seven games between these teams in last year's playoff series and it also hit the over in two of three head-to-head meetings in the regular season. Each team ranks among the top 10 in goals per game, too, so trust the offensive talent to shine through on Tuesday.

Bet: Over 5.5 Goals (-130)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.