Leafs vs Lightning Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NHL Playoffs Game 6 (Can Tampa Bay Force Another Game 7?)

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds and betting insights for NHL playoffs Game 6.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds and betting insights for NHL playoffs Game 6. / AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

The 2022-23 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs continue on Saturday, April 29, including Game 6 of the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning series.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 Info

  • Series: TOR leads 3-2
  • Date: Saturday, April 29, 2023
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Amalie Arena -- Tampa Bay, FL
  • Coverage: TBS, CBC, SportsNet

The Maple Leafs failed to advance to the second round in Game, 5, falling 4-2 to the Lightning in front of a disappointed Scotiabank Arena crowd. Four different Tampa Bay players lit the lamp to help keep their team alive as goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy returned to form, making 28-of-30 saves.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Odds & Spread

  • All NHL betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: TOR: (-110) | TBL: (-110)
  • Spread: TOR: +1.5 (-265) | TBL: -1.5 (+215)
  • Total: 6.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Lighting enter this contest as home favorites on the spread while the moneyline is a pick 'em situation per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 7 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 6.5 goals with both sides being available at -110 odds.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Betting Trends

  • Toronto is 5-0 straight up in its last five road games.
  • Tampa Bay is 14-6 straight up in its last 20 games played on a Saturday.
  • The total has hit the over in each of Toronto's last 10 road games against Tampa Bay.
  • The total has hit the over in eight of Tampa Bay's last 10 games.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction & Pick

The Maple Leafs have been in this position before. It was just in last postseason's first round that they marched into Amalie Arena with a 3-2 lead in Game 6, only to fall 4-3 in overtime. The Lightning parlayed that momentum into a Game 7 victory, ensuring that Toronto's playoff curse continued for at least one more year.

The Maple Leafs are now 0-11 straight up in their last 11 series-clinching first-round contests, highlighting their struggles to send their foes home. Now, the task becomes more challenging with the Lightning having momentum and returning to Amalie Arena, where they're 28-15 straight up this season.

Although Toronto has already won twice in Tampa, both games ended in overtime, meaning they could've easily gone the other way. The Lightning's defense has also proved that it's capable of slowing down the Leafs' elite attack and as long as Vasilevskiy remains solid in goal, the Bolts are good enough to overcome any challenge.

It'll be another tight contest, but momentum and history give Tampa Bay an edge.

Final Score Prediction: Lightning: 4 | Maple Leafs: 3

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Best Bet

With the moneyline being a pick 'em scenario, I'll stick to the total for the best bet, specifically, the Over. After all, the Over has been a constant for both sides, going 8-2 in the Lightning's last 10 games and 4-1 in the Leafs' previous five. The projected total has also been surpassed in each of the 10 previous Toronto-Tampa Bay matchups at Amalie Arena, which have averaged 7.8 goals per game.

With all but one game in this series seeing 7+ goals scored, backing the Over again is an easy decision.

Bet: Over 6.5 Total Goals (-110)

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.