Knicks vs. Heat Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 3 (New York Takes Series Lead in Miami)

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA Playoffs Game 3.
New York Knicks vs Miami Heat prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA Playoffs Game 3. / AP Photos/Mary Altaffer

The 2022-23 NBA Playoffs continue on Saturday with Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat.

Knicks vs. Heat Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, May 6, 2023
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: FTX Arena -- Miami, Florida
  • Coverage: ABC

The first two games of this series were both hard-fought battles. After the Heat won Game 1 by a score of 108-101, the Knicks won Game 2 by a score of 111-105. Jalen Brunson tallied 30 points in Tuesday's victory while Julius Randle logged a double-double with 25 points and 12 rebounds.

Knicks vs. Heat Odds & Spread

  • All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: NYK: (+138) | MIA: (-164)
  • Spread: NYK: +3.5 (-108) | MIA: -3.5 (-112)
  • Total: 208.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Heat enter Game 3 as small home favorites on the spread and moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook. Saturday's matchup also features a total of 208.5 points with each side available at -110 odds.

Heat vs Knicks Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Heat -3.5 -112 -108 208.5 -110 -110 -164 +138

Knicks vs. Heat Betting Trends

  • The Heat have covered the spread 30 times over 79 games with a set spread.
  • The Knicks have been underdogs by 3.5 points or more 18 times this year and are 10-6-2 ATS in those contests.
  • Heat games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under 39 times out of 78 chances this season.
  • Knicks games this season have hit the over on 42 of 78 set point totals (53.8%).
  • Against the spread, Miami has played worse when playing at home, covering 15 times in 40 home games, and 15 times in 39 road games.
  • In 2022-23 against the spread, New York has a lower winning percentage at home (.462, 18-20-1 record) than away (.641, 25-13-1).

Knicks vs. Heat Prediction & Pick

It's worth noting right off the bat that Jimmy Butler was sidelined on Tuesday night due to the ankle injury he suffered back in Game 1. The Heat still gave the Knicks everything they could handle inside Madison Square Garden, but they were clearly missing a reliable scorer to trust in the fourth quarter.

Keep an eye on Butler's status prior to tip-off, as almost a full week of rest should help him progress in his recovery. Regardless, I find myself leaning towards a New York upset here, as the Knicks were the only team in the NBA to finish with a winning record as a road underdog in the regular season (17-15).

New York found similar success in the first round, winning two of three games in Cleveland. The Heat see their defensive efficiency ranking drop from second in away games to 18th in home games, while the Knicks rank sixth in defensive efficiency in away games. In a battle between two defensive-minded teams, that gap could make all the difference.

Final Score Prediction: Knicks: 107 | Heat: 104

Check out more NBA Playoffs content from The Duel:


Knicks vs. Heat Best Bet

Not only did Julius Randle suit up on Tuesday despite being labeled as questionable with an ankle injury, but he was also on the court for 38 minutes of action and racked up 12 rebounds. He has posted at least 8 rebounds in nine of his 11 career playoff games as well as in 13 of his last 20 games overall.

All but one of those rebounds came on the defensive end in Game 1, which makes sense as the Heat allow an opponent defensive rebounding percentage of 77.7% (No. 24 in NBA). Miami also gives up over 10.0 rebounds per game to the power forward position alone. Look for Randle to make his presence felt on the glass again.

Bet: Julius Randle Over 7.5 Rebounds (+102)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.