Knicks vs. Heat Eastern Semifinals Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for May 10 (Jalen Brunson Keeps the Knicks Alive)

The Knicks failed to gain back home court advantage in Game 4 against the Heat, and are now heading back to Madison Square Garden needing to win three games in a row in order to keep their season alive.

Knicks vs. Heat Game Info

• Date: Wednesday, May 10, 2023
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: Madison Square Garden -- New York City, New York
• Coverage: TNT

MSG will no doubt be rocking on Wednesday night, but getting the first home win is just step one of a long road. Thankfully for the Knicks, two of three potentially remaining games in the series are in New York.

Knicks vs. Heat Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Knicks vs Heat Betting Information

Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline
Knicks	-3.5	-110	-110	209.5	-110	-110	-158	+134

Despite being down 3-1 in the series, the Knicks coming back to their home crowd has the oddsmakers giving them the edge in Game 5. The game features an over/under of 210, which is once again the lowest of the NBA slate.

Knicks vs. Heat Betting Trends

• The Knicks are 43-33-2 against the spread this season.
• The Heat have been underdogs by 3.5 points or more 14 times this season and are 6-8 ATS in those matchups.
• This season, 42 of the Knicks' games have gone over the point total out of 79 chances.
• The Heat have eclipsed the over/under 49.4% of the time this year (39 of 79 games with a set point total).
• New York has covered the spread in a lower percentage of its home games than away games. It has covered 18 times in 39 games at home, and it has covered 25 times in 39 games on the road.
• Miami has been better against the spread away (15-24-0) than at home (15-24-1) this season.

Knicks vs. Heat Prediction & Pick

The Knicks are in a win or go home situation for the rest of this series, but avoiding a gentleman's sweep on their home court is something I don't see happening. The Garden crowd has done an incredible job invigorating the Knicks this year and they own the seventh-best against the spread home record in the NBA so far this season, including the playoffs.

The Knicks got killed in Miami in three areas that are all supposed to be clear strengths – defense, rebounding and effort. Games 3 and 4 saw the Knicks look like a team that didn't want it and star power forward Julius Randle said as much, something he'll have to look in the mirror about ahead of Game 5.

That all being said, I expect the Garden crowd and the Knicks pride to carry them to a Game 6 back in Miami.

Final Score Prediction: Knicks 106 | Heat 98

Knicks vs. Heat Best Bet

The Knicks have lived and died by Jalen Brunson all season, and that has only become more apparent in the playoffs with Julius Randle's uninspiring play. Brunson has put up big numbers for the Knicks in each game this series, contributing in every way he can. Brunson's Points + Rebounds + Assists total is 36.5 for Game 5 at MSG.

He has hit the over on that total in three of four games against the Heat thus far this series. He exploded in the Game 4 loss with a combined total of 47, obliterating this over. The one game he didn't hit it, was the Game 3 blowout loss, where he also played his least amount of minutes this series (and he still got to a combined 34).

In his two games at MSG, he cleared it as well, with 37 combined total in both Game 1 and Game 2. Jalen Brunson would have to have his worst game of the series for this not to cover, and in an elimination Game at MSG, I simply don't see that happening.

Bet: Jalen Brunson Combined Pts + Rbs + Ast Over 36.5 (-120)

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David Kaestle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username davekaestle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.